• richard evans

GCSEs out of the way, now onto the Premier League

Good morning


GBP had a bout of weakness yesterday, GBPUSD trading to just above 1.3800 and EURGBP up to 0.8500 (GBPEUR 1.1765). Not huge moves but I see 1.3800 as a reasonably big level, we were above there in July until 16th when it broke lower and traded to 1.3560 or so, before making its way higher through the rest of the month, eventually reaching 1.3980 or so. Will we see a similar break or can we bounce from here as we did earlier in the week?


GBP lost ground against EUR as well so this was not a pure US dollar move. EURGBP now at 0.8500 (1.1765), again not a huge turnaround but certainly one that brings into question whether GBP can now hold, or see further losses. One of the problems is there doesn’t seem to be any real explanation for GBP weakness.


Some talk of a possible snap election in Canada, with an announcement possibly being made this weekend. I am not sure what is driving this. Not really being much help so far, am i?


Elsewhere, we continue to hear from clients that getting goods out of China is difficult. Now I see China have shut down one of the largest container ports in an attempt to reduce a spate of Covid infections. Unfortunately this is not going to make moving goods around any easier. We do have some decent China data out early Monday morning, there has been a lot of talk about China possibly looking at some sort of easing such as rate cuts, perhaps this data will give us some clues as to how likely this really is.


GCSE results were published yesterday and I am pleased to share that my daughter was very pleased with her grades. She didn’t sit an official exam but had sat three separate series of mock exams so she certainly pout the time and effort in. I’d like to say we spend some family time celebrating but the reality is she went out with some friends for lunch for their own celebration, ended up having something of a party and didn’t get home until 10pm. Guess this is a sign of things to come. Now the question is whether she should sit three or four A levels. I think three is enough but if anyone has any reason to suggest otherwise, do feel free to share with me.


The weekend is almost here and with it comes the start of the new Premier League season. This kicks off tonight with newly-promoted Brentford taking on Arsenal. Spurs face Man City on Sunday, will Kane ne playing and if so who on earth will be left out after a reasonable round of pre-season matches. As always I will begin the season with a fantasy football team, with the very best of intentions to keep it up to date through the whole season. Historically I have a poor track, one year I didn’t look at my team for a while and when I went back to it, all but three players were injured. My excuse of course is that I have my own team to manage, but this season I am really going to try. Any helpful pointers much appreciated. Main question is whether I get Lukaku in the team. More than happy for you to share any thoughts.

- 10.00 EU trade balance

- 13.30 US import, export prices

- 15.00 US Michigan sentiment survey

- 20.30 CFTC position data


Monday morning


- 00.50 Japan GDP

- 03.00 China retail sales, industrial production

- 05.30 Japan industrial production

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