Good morning
US data releases will be one hour earlier at 12.30 or 14.00 london time due to the US clock changes that took place recently.
In addition, FX option expiries will be 14.00 london time, not the usual 15.00 london time.
This will be until Sunday 31st when we change our clocks in the UK.
Friday was a relative day of calm after the moves earlier in the week. GBPUSD did test the 1.2580 area but held around 1.2600 for most of the day, and as I type it is not far off the level at 1.2615. EURUSD tested down to 1.0800 late on Friday but found support there just as it had done a few times back in late February, now 1.0820. GBPEUR hadn’t really been below 1.1660 since late Jan but did drop below there on Thursday and has after a failed attempt to push higher it has generally stayed below that 1.1660 ever since, now just a few points lower at 1.1655.
USDJPY is stil above 151.00, now 151.30. We have seen some fairly tough talk from Japan officials that has put the market on higher alert of intervention, with Dep FinMin Kanda saying they are in close communication with foreign counterparts, suggesting potential for coordinated action, which saying they are not ruling out any options. The market may be on alert but we’ve not seen significant Yen buying. Still, perhaps the comments have slowed the Yen selling for now.
Not a huge amount of news to report from the currency world at the moment. Fitch have revised UK’s outlook up from negative to stable on lower economic policy risks. Feds Bostic has said he sees just one rate cut this year, down from his previous forecast of two cuts, with that one cut coming later than previously thought.
So what did I get wrong this weekend? Well first the weather which turned out to be colder than expected but certainly drier, with a load of lovely sunshine. Grass was mown, a few other chores got done in the garden which I hadn’t expected to be able to do. In F1, Max Verstappen didn’t win the Aussie GP, Carlos Sainz took the honours, all the more amazing given just over two weeks ago he had abdominal surgery. They’re fit, these F1 drivers, if a bit mad. He apparently reported that when racing after his surgery, everything inside seemed to move around a bit more. Nice.
England lost to Brazil, a rather disappointing score given the upcoming Euros, I’m not sure either side fielded their strongest team but we had some decent players on the pitch. Still, it was fairly close. France, world cup finalists and second favourite for the Euros lost to Germany over the weekend, so perhaps its not so bad for England. We’re hoping for a better display against Belgium tomorrow evening. Wales will be taking on Poland tomorrow to see who will be competing in Euro 2024.
Of course the big news over the weekend was the terror attack that took place in Moscow that saw nearly 140 people lose their lives. Despite IS claiming responsibility, Russia has accused Ukraine of involvement and of course we have the usual conspiracy theorists claiming CIA or Israel were behind the atrocity. It seems US had warned Moscow of a potential threat, we may never know the truth but I’m thinking Euro 2024 and the Paris Olympics in the summer will face hefty security. France have already moved their terror threat to the highest level.
We’ll hear from BoEs Mann later today, she changed her call for higher rates at the recent BoE meeting so it will be interesting to hear how close a decision that was for her. I’d still expect her to err on the hawkish side mind you. Otherwise it’s a fairly quiet calendar today and indeed for the early part of the week. We’ll have UK and US GDP Thursday, and just as we in the UK are taking our long Easter weekend, our friends across the pond will be releasing the latest PCE numbers. We’ll also have some reasonable Aussie data including CPI and retail sales through the week but I’m not seeing anything that I think will have significant market impact. Famous last words perhaps?
- 10.00 ECBs Lagarde speaks
- 12.25 Feds Bostic speaks
- 14.00 US new home sales
- 14.15 BoEs Mann speaks
- 14.30 Feds Cook speaks
- 00.30 AUS Westpac consumer confidence