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  • richard evans

USD back in favour

Good morning

US dollar has pushed higher despite some disappointing retail sales numbers yesterday. GBPUSD and EURUSD have traded towards the start of the week lows, currently 1.2450 and 1.0850 while USDJPY is up at 136.85. Decent Japan GDP numbers overnight did nothing to help JPY, slightly odd as I’d have expected this to lead to renewed speculation that we could see some slight tightening from BoJ.

Fed officials speaking yesterday didn’t give much away, confirming they are still focussed on getting inflation back to the 2% target and that rates are not yet restrictive enough, although others added that time is needed to see the full impact of previous rate increases on the economy. Meanwhile US leaders continue to negotiate this debt limit but I’ve seen no major news from talks at the moment other than a tiny bit of hope that both sides see the importance of avoiding a default. Biden will be at the G7 meeting in Japan this weekend but has cut short his trip around Asia in order to continue talks.

USDCAD has had a busy week or two, ending April around 1.3650, trading down to 1.3315 last week before recovering to 1.3565 Monday. Yesterdays Canadian CPI pushed CAD higher helping USDCAD down to 1.3405 but it now sits 1.3500, dragged higher on this latest bout of USD strength,

No major data due today, EU inflation numbers are the final release and not expected to offer any surprises. We do have some ECB officials speaking and we’ll keep an eye on those for any clues as to their perceived rate path. Otherwise, I’m up in London for a few meetings today with some old clients and some (hopefully) new clients.

Finally, while I don’t like blowing my own trumpet, I had messages from a couple of new readers this week saying how they like the daily reports. One reader was from the North side of the Isle of Wight. The other was from the North Island of New Zealand. That’s truly a global readership.

- 10.00 EU HICP

- 10.00 ECBs Elderson speaks

- 10.30 ECBs Panetta speaks

- 10.50 BoEs Bailey speaks

- 13.30 US building permits, housing starts

- 00.50 Japan trade

- 02.30 AUS employment

- 03.00 NZ budget release

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