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  • richard evans

UK likely to see higher interest rates and energy bills today

Good morning

A busier calendar today, highlights being BOE and ECB rate announcements. The BoE are expected to increase rates 25bps while increasing inflation forecasts but lowering growth rates. We look for any clues as to whether BoE follow market thinking that we could see several more 25bps rate rises through 2022. ECB meanwhile may well be trying to keep a more dovish message but with inflation yesterday coming in higher than expected the market is thinking we’ll have to see more hawkish talk soon. Today may be a bit early but it does seem more a matter of when, and not if, the ECB change their dovish thinking. GBPUSD sits at 1.3555, EURUSD 1.1295 which leaves GBPEUR at 1.2000 (GBPEUR 0.8335).

Also in the UK we see OFGEM energy price cap this morning, expected to bring about huge rises in domestic energy bills, while chancellor Sunak could release a package to help bring those bills down for some people through state backed loans. With interest rates going up and energy bills going up, there must surely be a negative knock-on effect to the economy.

Johnson has had a few letters of no confidence from some of his own MPs and more are thought to be in the pipeline but it is thought these fall far short of the number required to trigger a vote.

Northern Ireland have suspended checks on goods which won’t please the EU but this does seem more like a unilateral decision than anything to do with UK/EU negotiations over the NI protocol.

US troops will be moved to Poland, Romania and Germany to support NATO allies, Russia of course says the move heightens tensions but then again so does 100,000+ Russian troops on Ukraines border. There is still no indication that NATO would act in Ukraine but the build-up of troops in Europe is something we’d rather not have to see. I read somewhere that Boris Johnson spoke to Putin yesterday although as yet I haven’t seen much from that call.

NZ has announced plans to reopen its borders to allow citizens who are currently stranded overseas to go home without having to stay in a quarantine hotel, although they will still have to self-isolate for ten days. The changes are made in stages beginning in late Feb through to October.

We all talk about high inflation but do spare a thought for Tukey, where numbers released this morning show annual inflation running at 48.7%. I had wondered whether we’d see an unusually low print after Erdogan fired the statistics chief last week but it appears I was wrong. TRY did weaken a little but EURTRY is now right in the middle of the 15.00-15.70 range we have seen for a couple of weeks.

Today could see a bit of volatility, we also have US nonfarm payroll numbers tomorrow so plenty to watch. No rest for the wicked…..

- 09.00 EU markit services PMI

- 09.30 UK markit services PMI

- 11.00 UK OFGEM price cap

- 12.00 BoE rate announcement

- 12.30 BoE press conference

- 12.45 ECB rate announcement

- 13.30 ECB press conference

- 13.30 US initial jobless claims

- 14.45 US markit services PMI

- 15.00 US services ISM

- 21.45 NZ building permits

- 00.30 RBA monetary policy statement

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