USD higher, oil higher, equities lower

Good morning

US data releases will be one hour earlier at 12.30 or 14.00 London time due to the US clock changes that took place at the weekend. 

FX option expiries will be 14.00 London time, not the usual 15.00 London time.

This will be until Sunday 29^th March when we change our clocks in the UK.

I was supposed to have a physio session on my shoulder this morning but the local roads are shut due to trees being down.  Every road out of where I live was gridlocked so despite trying many routes I had to give up and return home.  Not only a waste of time, I’m running behind schedule, and I fear I could be waiting for a long time before I get another appointment.  I knew some strong winds were forecast but I must have slept through it all. 

GBPUSD traded down to 1.3255 this morning having seen a high overnight around 1.3370.  Part of the move coincided with the release of softer than expected UK GDP and industrial production earlier this morning although the move had started long before then and given EURUSD has also dropped from its overnight high of 1.1530 to 1.1435 it is clear this is more of a US dollar move, although of course the UK data didn’t help.  To prove the point, GBPEUR is still in the high 1.15s.

AUD and NZD are also lower against USD and even though there are suggestions we could have 25bps rate rises at the next two RBA meetings, GBPAUD is off its recent lows, now 1.8860 and GBPNZD ticked as high as 2.2900 earlier although is now 100 pips lower.  Have I missed the boat on downside AUD as I’d mentioned Wednesday?  USDJPY traded up towards 159.70 briefly, it’s 30 pips or so off those highs as I type but that psychological 160 level is not far away at all.  Japan FinMin Katayama did say that they were is closer than usual communication with US officials but that doesn’t seem to have much impact on the markets.

Equities are consistently lower, oil prices are back up to the $100 area.  It is almost as though people have only just worked out the implications of the Iranian war, almost two weeks after it began.  Questions of course remain over the war and whether it is achieving the results it set out to do.  For sure, Iran has been pummelled by wave after wave of missiles and bombs, and it does seem that their retaliatory attacks have diminished somewhat, but it would be foolish to think they are unable to operate and there doesn’t seem to be anything going on in the way of regime change.  Of course, I’m only going by news we are fed by the media, who knows what is really going on.

The day ahead brings some heavyweight US data including GDP and core PCE, both of which have market-moving potential.   Once they are out of the way we can begin to look forward to the weekend which brings Premier League action which, for a Spurs fan, isn’t really anything to look forward to, particularly given we play Liverpool on Sunday so the chance of points is even worse than ever.  We’ll be relying on the other teams around us to perform as badly as Spurs do. 

We have the Chinese F1 grand prix on Sunday, there is a sprint race tomorrow and Mercedes have already dominated qualifying.  The Japanese GP follows in late March, then we should have the Bahrain and Saudi GP’s in April although I’m guessing the chance of those going ahead are slim. 

Have a great day, and a great weekend as and when it comes…

-  09.30 UK consumer inflation expectations

-  10.00 EU industrial production

-  12.30 US core PCE, GDP, durable goods

-  12.30 CAD employment

-  14.00 US Michigan sentiment survey

-  18.00 US monthly budget statement