Good morning
The snow didn’t last long but the temperatures remain low, overnight we hit minus numbers and it’s not going to get much warmer through the day.
A reasonably quiet day again in the FX world, the US dollar had a brief push higher yesterday morning, GBPUSD traded down to 1.2615 and EURUSD to 1.0525, but through the rest of the day the USD gradually weakened and by the London close we were back up at 1.2670 and 1.0580. GBPEUR closed around 1.1970. The weaker USD was perhaps helped by Fed’s Schmid who sounded reasonably dovish, saying it was the right time to be cutting rates.
CAD pushed higher in the afternoon after Canadian inflation came out even stronger than the already elevated expectations. USDCAD moved down from 1.4025 to 1.3975 in a straight line and despite a fleeting recovery it ended around those lows. 11th December is the next BoC rate meeting, some thinking that another 50bps cut could be off the table but I think the BoC may look more closely at employment than inflation for the time being.
Anyone who had been hoping for a Dec rate cut may want to look away now. UK inflation this morning was firmer than expected which pushed GBP higher. GBPUSD had been pretty stable overnight around the 1.2685 area traded up to around 1.2715, while also climbing back above 1.2000 against the EUR for the first time this week. GBPJPY is now up at 197.60 helped by both the UK inflation numbers but also a weak yen, with USDJPY climbing from yesterdays lows around 153.30 to around 155.70. Ueda speaks early tomorrow morning, he may try to talk yen higher.
Something that could also be helping GBP is the report that UK’s employment numbers may be missing around 1 million people who are in work, while also overplaying the numbers of workers dropping out of the jobs market. If this turned out to be correct, it may encourage BoE to keep rates higher for longer. Quite how they could get numbers so wrong is beyond me.
A new series of I’m a Celebrity has started. I’m still not sure if ‘celebrity’ is a fair description but I have heard of some of the contestants without having to look them up. Anyway, it’s the usual format, they’ll have to eat unpalatable things and do scary tasks but those are getting a little long in the tooth now, there are only so many times we need to see people in a box with snakes and spiders.
What I think we really need is for the camp to not get along with each other. They’re all a bit too nice these days. Anyway, it’s the betting I’m more interested in as the early favourites don’t always do so well. Main favourite for now is McFly band member Danny Jones who seems sickeningly pleasant. TikToker GK Barry (had to look her up) looks like an early favourite who on the face of it could struggle to go the distance but I’m thinking she could surprise us and one would think she’d have the online support if her 4 million followers all bothered to vote.
Still, I’m going to struggle to get into IAC as I’m currently working my way through Ted Lasso. Yes, I know, once again I’m very late to the party, I have to say the series had never really appealed to me, but we got into it quite quickly and I must say it rarely disappoints, save for a rather odd episode in series 2.
Running a bit late today so I’ll leave it there for now. As I finish typing GBPUSD has ticked lower again to 1.2675, EURUSD is also lower at 1.0560 which means GBPEUR is still around the 1.2000 area.
Have a great day, stay warm.
- 13.00 ECBs Lagarde speaks
- 15.30 BoEs Breeden speaks
- 16.00 Feds Cook speaks
- 16.00 BoEs Ramsden speaks
- 17.15 Feds Bowman speaks
- 18.00 ECBs de Guindos speaks
- 05.10 BoJs Ueda speaks
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