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  • richard evans

Starting the week on a positive note

Good morning

US stocks slipped Friday but Asian markets start the week with a positive tone, Nikkei up almost 2%. The USD regained a bit of ground Friday afternoon, GBPUSD trading down from 1.3980 to 1.3890, it has managed to claw its way back above 1.3900 this morning but the big question is whether we can get back above the 1.4000 level, something that we have failed to see since that hawkish Fed meeting back on 16th June.

EURUSD suffered a similar issue with the 1.2000 level but has fared worse thanks really to a dovish ECB. EURUSD now at 1.1880, having a problem to get any sustained move over 1.1900 through July, while the single currency remains near its recent lows against GBP at 0.8530 (GBPEUR 1.1725).

It is no suprise that Covid remains the key issue for the global economic situation. Feds Kashkari has warned that the fast spreading delta variant could stop some Americans from looking for work which could harm the US recovery, while in the UK we are set to welcome travellers who have been vaccinated in EU or US with the need for them to isolate on arrival. I’m not sure this will lead to a huge influx of people but perhaps it’s a step in the right direction.

Despite UK Covid numbers dropping, I know more and more people who have tested positive, with a wide variation of symptoms and seriousness. My wife aside, I don’t know anyone who has been hospitalised but I do know some who have been rather poorly and still feel fatigued after several weeks. I also know some who have tested positive but have hardly had any symptoms. If this can continue to be the case, ie people catching it but not being hospitalised, we are surely on the right track. Presuming vaccinations can become simpler, perhaps one-shot, and testing can become quicker and more accurate, there should be less of an issue going forward. There are quite a few big ‘IF’s’ there but lets start the week on a positive note.

Not so positive was the weather over the weekend which, certainly in my area, saw some pretty hefty rain. It’s a bit sunnier this morning but looking at the week ahead there still seems to be a lot of rain forecast. I don’t want to hear ‘its good for the grass’ because my lawnmower broke down over the weekend. By the time its fixed the grass is likely to be a foot long.

Finally, the Olympics continues to entertain. I measured out the heights and lengths they jump in high jump and long jump. Really, only when you measure it out can you really appreciate how incredible they are. The long jump winner managed 8m 41cm. The high jumpers managed 2m 37cm. Really, measure it out, stand next to it and you’ll not think it possible.

- 09.00 EU markit manufacturing PMI

- 09.30 UK markit manufacturing PMI

- 14.45 US markit manufacturing PMI

- 15.00 US manufacturing ISM

- 00.30 Japan Tokyo CPI

- 02.30 AUS building permits

- 05.30 RBA rate announcement

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