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  • richard evans

Shanghai lockdown ends, but with conditions

Good morning

Well what a splendid couple of days. I was out on my annual golf weekend with some guys I used to play football with. We were at Old Thorns in Hampshire. I first went there many years ago when it was a small, informal hotel with a stunning golf course attached. We commented at the time that the course deserved better facilities. It is now almost unrecognisable, a large hotel, spa, restaurant, bars function rooms, but it has been done very well indeed.

What made it all the better was that I managed to play a little golf. I can’t say I was great and I certainly can’t hit a ball like I used to but given I had my shoulder replacement just three months ago to the day it was something of a minor miracle that I could participate at all. The weather stayed mostly dry and sunny except for some brief spells of rather heavy rain. I actually came last although to be fair that was more down to fitness, walking 3 ½ rounds in three days on a reasonably hilly course is not something I was particularly well prepared for. The final day was something of a disaster score-wise but I’ll settle for what I was able to do. I’m feeling it today mind you.

In other sporting news I am very pleased to announce that last Friday evening my U15s beat their local rivals 5-1 in the final league match of the season which meant we not only won the league but were unbeaten in that competition all season. Really quite a feat at any level. Unbeaten in the league plus the trophy we won a couple of weeks ago, a hugely successful season. We now have a few weeks recovery before it all starts again.

To the markets and I must confess I have done little more than sneak a quick look at the prices so far this week but I am pleased to see that GBP is only a few points away from where it was last Friday morning. GBPUSD was 1.2625, now 1.2600, although we have had a range of 1.2560-1.2660. EURGBP is also now only a few points away from Friday morning levels at 0.8510 (GBPEUR 1.1750). For the record EURUSD is 1.0725, this too has seen a range from 1.0680 to 1.0785.

We have an extra long bank holiday this weekend to celebrate the Queen’s platinum jubilee. That is seventy years since she took the throne. In fact it’s a little longer as she actually took over on 6th Feb 1952 after the death of her father. Whether or not you are a fan of the royal family, this is some achievement and it is really quite incredible to think of the changes she has seen in the world during her time on the throne.

There will be street parties and garden parties to celebrate across the country, lets hope the cloud bursts we saw over the past couple of days stay well away, for now the forecast suggests it will be warm and dry, at least until the weekend.

Parties also seem to have been held in Shanghai where lockdowns are ending for most people. They were originally planned to be in place for just over one week and ended up lasting for 65 days. There are still areas fully closed off, some 650,000 people still have to stay at home, and those who can move around in most public spaces arfe required to have a negative PCR test no more than 72 hours old. So its business as usual…..sort of.

BoC rate announcement today where another 50bps rise is expected to take rates to 1.5%. Do remember however that although the UK is on holiday, the rest of the world isn’t. Friday sees a host of economic data including services PMIs from EU and US, EU retail sales and US nonfarm payroll numbers. Fear not though, we’ll be your eyes and ears on the markets while you’re enjoying your scones and cakes with your neighbours!

- 00.01 UK BRC shop prices

- 02.30 AUS GDP

- 02.45 China Caixin manufacturing PMI

- 07.00 German retail sales

- 09.00 EU S&P manufacturing PMI

- 09.30 UK S&P manufacturing PMI

- 10.00 EU unemployment rate

- 12.00 ECBs Lagarde speaks

- 14.30 CAD S&P manufacturing PMIs

- 14.45 US S&P manufacturing PMIs

- 15.00 US manufacturing ISM

- 15.00 BoC rate announcement

- 16.15 ECBs Panetta speaks

- 18.00 Feds Bullard speaks

- 19.00 Feds Beige book

- 02.30 AUS trade balance

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