Good morning
Well, England came close, again, but as we’ve seen a few times before, were just unable to get over the final hurdle. Euro 2024 will be remembered as the tournament where England had the best squad but failed to make the most of it. On the other hand, the winners, Spain, absolutely made the most of everything they had, being one of the few, or only, teams to win all seven matches, beating the likes of Germany, France and of course England along the way. England have reached the world cup semi-finals and now reached the Euro finals in consecutive tournaments, a great feat in itself, but have no trophies to show for it.
Fridays US PPI number actually came out stronger than expected but that didn’t stop the US Dollar sliding lower. GBPUSD finished the week just a few pips short of 1.3000, EURUSD just above 1.0900, as the market continues to price in a September rate cut from the Fed. Since the open today we’ve seen a slightly higher USD, GBPUSD now 1.2970 and EURUSD 1.0885, both not too far from those recent highs. GBP has been the better performer, with GBPEUR back above 1.1900, despite comments from BoEs Dhingra that it is time for BoE to start lowering rates.
It is a pretty quiet calendar today but things do perk up through the week. We will have UK inflation Wednesday, unemployment Thursday and retail sales Friday. We’ll also have retail sales from the US, Canada inflation and NZ inflation tomorrow, EU inflation Wednesday and the ECB rate meeting on Thursday. No rate change is expected but they will likely leave the door open for a September cut, particularly if the Fed lower rates as well. The next FOMC meeting is not until the end of July, but we have a few days before their blackout period so we will hear from a few Fed officials this week, including Powell later today.
Of course one of the key events over the weekend was the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, he survived but sadly a man in the crowd was killed. There is plenty of talk as to whether the security teams did a good enough job, there is also the usual load of conspiracy theory nonsense claiming it was staged. Still, no doubt Trump will make use of the photo of him with his fist raised, US flag behind him, with blood running across his face.
Other than the football;, England also lost the rugby to New Zealand once again. England did win the test match against the West Indies by a whopping innings and 114 runs. And congratulations to Alcarez for winning Wimbledon for the second d year running with a convincing three set to zero victory over Djokovic. We’ve got a bit of a lull in major sporting events for a couple of weeks until the Olympics begins on 26th July. Is it just me, or is the Olympics not the event it used to be when I was younger?
Have a great day
- 10.00 EU industrial production
- 13.30 US NY expire state manufacturing index
- 15.30 CAD BoC business outlook survey
- 15.35 Feds Daly speaks
- 17.30 Feds Powell speaks
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