Bond yield woes continue to weight on EUR

Good morning

Not a great deal going on in the major currencies.  The US dollar has kept much of its recent strength helped by decent enough PMI numbers yesterday, GBP and EUR are now 1.3215 and 1.1210, with GBPEUR a touch lower at 1.1790.  USDJPY is back above 158.00 but does seem to face resistance as it gets to the 158.40 area.  GBP is 209.00 against JPY, and against AUD, NZD and CAD it is currently 1.8970, 2.3625 and 1.8865.  NZD is the weaker of that bunch, with AUDNZD back up to 1.2450 despite a decent NZ business confidence number overnight.

The political and fiscal situation in Europe remains difficult.  Spain did call a snap election, due on 29^th November, following protests over housing and rents, France’s education system is in disarray after a week of violent protests over a lack of funding.   German/French and German/Italian bond spreads remain at elevated levels. 

Yemen and Saudi Arabia are reported to have taken back land recently seized by the Houthis.  Oil prices are a touch lower but there are plenty of warnings about the state of global oil inventories, with Saudi Aramco’s boss saying they are at ‘scarily low’ levels. 

I am currently on a course of antibiotics to combat a bit of a chest infection which isn’t unusual for me at this time of year.  However, there are reports out of Russia of a pneumonia-type death in a plague research centre in Siberia, with some suggestions hundreds of people have been under observation since the death.  The mainstream media is playing it down a bit, while the likes of Twitter (X) are far more sensationalist and doom-mongering.  Worth keeping an eye on but hopefully quietly passes by.

It is Amazon’s big deals day today which I always get interested in but there isn’t anything I really need.  I’m sure if I looked hard enough I’d find something so probably best I’d stay away.  I’m never sure if they really are good deals, it does feel a bit like the old carpet or furniture shop sales, but I guess you can get lucky.  Probably a good thing that I’m out and about a bit today so I won’t be tempted. 

England play football again this evening as they take on Czech Republic in the last of this round of Nations League matches.  This comes on the back of England’s impressive 7-0 win over Croatia, whether they can emulate that form remains to be seen.  This match will mark the end of England’s international break, all ready for Premier League action to return on Saturday.   

Not much on the calendar today, it is quite likely we have another quiet session ahead of us.

Have a great day…

-  09.40 BoEs Mann speaks

-  10.00 EU retail sales

-  14.00 ECBs Cipollone, Elderson speaks

-  14.05 Feds Williams speaks

-  15.00 CAD Ivey PMI

-  15.45 Feds Bowman speaks