• richard evans

GBP gets no support from England win

Well what a tremendous game of football that was. A 2-0 win over rivals Germany sends England into the quarter finals, where they face Ukraine who surprised Sweden with a winner at the very end of extra time. England rode their luck at times, Pickford saved well against Werner and Muller, so often the key man for Germany over the years, saw his shot go wide that would have brought Germany level soon after England too the lead. To win matches and tournaments, a bit of luck is always needed and England made the most of theirs yesterday. All in all a spirited and deserved victory, Germans exit means that all four teams from the mighty Group F have now been eliminated. The route to the final is never easy but we are certainly in the right half of the draw.

The weather Is still not quite what we’d hope for at this time of year, although it could be heating up a bit by the time the weekend comes around. When you’re complaining about the need to wear a jumper, or even a coat, to go outside, spare a thought for the citizens of Canada and North West US where some areas are faced with record temperatures approaching 50 degrees Celsius. Almost 130 fatalities have unfortunately been recorded and I presume at these temperatures infrastructure such as roads and power lines must start becoming affected. Give me mid-20s any day.

USD – A fairly quiet day with little in the way of action, equities were very slightly positive and futures this morning are currently pointing towards further gains today. Not sure this will do much for the dollar, watch the ADP employment number which as we know is sometimes regarded as an indicator for the nonfarms but is not particularly reliable. With little else to go on, no doubt it will get some attention.

EUR – EURUSD trades at 1.1900 as german unemployment numbers come in pretty much as expected. Inflation data out later this morning could offer some excitement, as could german retail sales which are released early tomorrow morning. Otherwise its more of the same.

GBP – The pound has not reacted to the England win, no real reason why it should of course although over the years we have seen sport-based risk sentiment being the catalyst for some currency gains. For now GBP struggles, well off the recent highs and with half an eye on the recent lows. GBPUSD now 1.3830 having been sold off after the GDP release this morning, last weeks lows around 1.3785 very much in range, perhaps the outgoing Haldane will offer some much needed support when he speaks later today. EURGBP just above 0.8600 (GBPEUR 1.1630), GBP under a little pressure ahead of the conclusion of the UK/EU discussions on Northern Ireland border issues, a three month extension is widely expected, GBP at risk though if there is no agreement.

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