Good morning
Currency markets have been reasonably stable, we did see a bit of USD strength yesterday afternoon which took GBPUSD to its recent lows around 1.2975, an area that has provided support for a week or so and once again we have pushed back up from that area to the 1.3000 region. EURUSD also dipped a little, touching 1.0810, again the low from last week, but has crept higher a touch higher to 1.0825 as I type. GBPEUR is 1.2010, still supported by ECB/BE policy divergence.
The stronger USD was perhaps due to comments from Fed officials who, although still see the case for further easing, generally see a slower pace of rate cuts going forward. Logan, Kashkari, Schmid and Daly all seemed to share this view, the latter expressing more concern about the US labour market.
USDCAD remains towards the top of the recent ranges ahead of BoC’s rate meeting tomorrow. USDCAD is now 1.3825 having tested up to 1.3850 yesterday, GBPCAD is 1.7980 while there is some focus on CADJPY which, aside from a blip in early October, is pretty much at the highs since late July. Now 109.20, this area has been tested several times since July and has generally held. A bit of a battle of two weak currencies, well worth watching. A 50bps cut tomorrow could send CAD lower, particularly if accompanied by some dovish commentary as well.
In sport, I watched a bit of Notts Forest v Crystal Palace yesterday, I have a bit of a soft spot for both teams but I have to say it was a pretty dismal affair lacking in any real quality. Forest took the win which puts them level with Spurs in the league table. This evening brings Champions League fixtures, Arsenal and Aston Villa both playing tonight.
In other football news, I see that Spains’s La Liga are looking to play the December league fixture between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid in Miami. We’ve had NFL and baseball over here, it is only a matter of time before we get Premier League fixture played elsewhere.
In perhaps more important news, men’s Conker world champion, 82 year old David Jakins has been cleared of cheating in the finals with his steel conker. We can all sleep peacefully at night now!
Todays calendar is packed with central bank speakers from ECB, Fed and BoE. I’d expect the Fed officials to continue to look for cuts albeit at a slower pace and ECB officials to continue looking for lower rates. BoE might be more tricky, we had Bailey recently talk of more aggressive cuts and the weaker inflation data last week seemed to support that, so will be interesting to see whether we get similar comments today.
Have a great day
- 14.05 ECBs Knot speaks
- 14.15 ECBs Nagel speaks
- 14.15 BoEs Greene speaks
- 14.25 BoEs Bailey speaks
- 14.45 ECBs Holzman speaks
- 15.00 Feds Harker speaks
- 15.30 ECBs Lagarde speaks
- 16.00 ECBs Lane speaks
- 18.00 ECBs Villeroy speaks
- 19.00 ECbs Rehn speaks
- 20.15 ECBS Lagarde speaks
- 20.15 BoEs Breeden speaks
- 21.00 ECBs Lane speaks
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