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  • richard evans

Calm before the storm....

Good morning

All fairly quiet this morning other than a bit of GBP movement after GDP numbers that came is surprisingly strong, although Chancellor Hunt has made it clear we should not get carried away with the data and there is a lot of difficulty ahead. Difficulties indeed, I see UK energy prices are hitting record highs just as these low temperatures look set to stay with us for a while longer.

GBPUSD currently 1.2240, not really sure which way to go with so much data in the offing. News reports suggest Sunak could already be facing some problems from his own party as Priti Patel backs a new campaign that has an issue with Sunak being ‘given’ the PM role without a membership vote. Elsewhere I do see some suggestions BoE may look to raise rates just 50bps rather than the 75bps that had been previously expected, it is not a universal view mind you and for now GBP holding up. Weak US inflation and a 50bps rise from FOMC could see a weaker US dollar, whether that would have any bearing on the BoE decision I really don’t know.

There is talk of surge in China Covid cases as a result of the recent opening up although despite this plans seem to be moving ahead for an opening of borders and quarantine-free travel. I believe US officials are travelling to China this week which could open up further talks between the two nations early next year.

A decent smattering of snow this end although probably not enough to close the schools, much to the disappointment of my youngest who was rather hoping to go sledging over the road.

Speaking of disappointment, of course the England team are heading home from Qatar having lost to France in the quarter finals. It was a frustrating game, England not helped by a couple of decisions and certainly didn’t get any luck. I don’t think we could have done much more to be honest, other than tuck that last penalty away of course. Tomorrow sees Argentina take on Croatia in the first of the semi finals. That’ll be a good one.

It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic data front and key central bank officials from Fed, ECB and BoE are in the blackout period ahead of their respective rate announcements this week. We do get UK unemployment and german inflation tomorrow morning, ahead of US inflation numbers tomorrow afternoon. Enjoy the calm before the storm.

- 20.25 BoCs Macklem speaks

- 07.00 UK unemployment

- 07.00 German HICP

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