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  • richard evans

Yen weaker on BoJ bond buying, markets await RBA

Good morning

Hope you had a great weekend. A bit of a washout here yesterday but Saturday was pretty lovely with some hot sun, a few clouds getting in the way from time to time. It still amazes me that the heat from the sun, which has travelled 93 million miles through space to get here, can be stopped by just a cloud of water vapour. It also amazes me how, when just a few hundred miles south they are basking in incredible heat, we are sitting through a ‘summer’ of coldish weather and rain. The Ashes didn’t see much play yesterday, just as well given the rate at which Australia were knocking up the runs, England will be hoping for more rain today which would result in a 2-1 loss to the Aussies.

The players got a breather yesterday, and the markets had something of a breather on Friday after some initial USD weakness, GBPUSD moved from sub-1.28 to high-1.289s, settling in the mid-1.28s. With GBPUSD now 1.2865 and EURUSD now 1.1025, GBPEUR is 1.1670. There has been excitement overnight in Yen, USDJPY now 142.00, up from 139.10 this time Friday, while Nikkei pushed 1.25% higher as BoJ reportedly bought Japanese govt bonds in an unscheduled move. The move has dragged yen crosses higher, GBPJPY now 182.75 and EURJPY 156.70.

RBA rate announcement due overnight, a 25bps rise is expected although RBA have surprised the mark on a few occasions and the lower than expected Aussie inflation numbers last week could give RBA reason to think about keeping rates unchanged at this meeting as they did last time out. GBPAUD now 1.9225 for the record.

Comments from Lagarde appeared in the press over the weekend, she said that if we were to see a pause from ECB it would not automatically mean rate rises were over. This seems to be a theme from central banks recently who, as rates near the peak of this cycle, are a little less clear about when to actually stop. As such they are slowing the pace of rate rises, giving a bit more time between rate rises, but leaving the door open for more rises if need be. The first estimates of EU GDP and inflation are out this morning, the Core inflation seems to be the key, the lower the reading the more chance we have of seeing a pause from ECB.

After RBA, BoE is the next major central bank to announce rates. On Thursday we will find out if they are going the full 50bps as had been expected, or whether the lower core inflation reading earlier in July is enough to persuade the Bank to raise just 25bps. It’s a close call.

The week will finish with US nonfarm payroll numbers, always offering some interest. I’ll be watching from afar though, as I’m off to Italy in the early hours of tomorrow morning for a bit of culture in Venice, Rome and Florence, Lucca and Pisa. The kids are going to love all the travelling, walking and looking at old things. Still, they’re not paying so they have to do what we tell them. That’s the theory anyway. It’ll be good fun I’m sure.

As always, we remain well and truly open for business, Mark’s on hand for anything you need. I’ll have half an eye on emails so if you do send anything to me you might get a slower than usual reply. Client visits when I’m back means daily reports may not be resumed until week commencing 21st August. Enjoy the peace and quiet until then.

One last reminder that it’s the last day to use any non-barcoded stamps today. Don’t let them go to waste.

- 10.00 EU HICP, GDP

- 14.45 US chicago PMI

- 23.45 NZ building permits

- 00.30 Japan unemployment

- 02.30 AUS building permits

- 02.45 China caixin manufacturing PMI

- 05.30 RBA rate announcement

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