top of page

We've had the calm, will we get the storm?

richard evans

Good morning

 

For this week, US data releases will be one hour earlier at 12.30 or 14.00 london time due to the clock changes.

 

In addition, FX option expiries will be 14.00 london time, not the usual 15.00 london time.

 

It was indeed a pretty dead day in the currency markets yesterday.  We saw tight ranges across most pairs, although AUD was a notable mover on the day, with GBPAUD trading up to 1.9710 through the afternoon, AUD driven lower by concerns of a slowing Chinese economy and perhaps ahead of Aussie inflation that comes out in the very early hours of tomorrow morning.

 

GBPUSD was mostly stuck in a 1.2965-1.2995 range, EURUSD 1.0810-1.0825.  GBPEUR was never far away from 1.2000 USDJPY traded down to 152.50 but pushed back up to 153.25 in to the London close, which meant GBPJPY was 100 pips off the lows, reaching 198.85.  Overnight we’ve seen little change, with similar ranges and levels are pretty much now where we left them yesterday, GBPUSD 1.2975, EURUSD 1.0815, GBPEUR 1.2000, GBPYJPY 198.85.

 

Not much on the calendar today although we get the first set of US job data for the week, in the form of JOLTS job openings.  We’ll have US consumer confidence at the same time but I’m thinking employment numbers are currently of more interest given the Fed’s focus on the labour market. 

 

Aussie inflation overnight will be of interest, we know RBA have been one of the more hawkish central banks for a while, this set of data is expected to show softer inflation but whether that will be enough for RBA to change their tune remains to be seen.  I have seen a downside AUDNZD trade idea, partly based on technical but partly on the risk of potentially weaker incoming Aussie data. 

 

Still, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we see little movement in the markets once again ahead of such a potentially lively second half of the week, with EU GDP and german inflation, plus US GDP ADP as well as the UK budget tomorrow, BoJ rate announcement, EU inflation and US core PCE Thursday, then US nonfarms Friday.  But it isn’t just this week that is important.  Next week brings the US election as well as BoE, FOMC and RBA rate announcements.  We’ve certainly got a lot to look forward to. 

 

In sport, Ten Hag was sacked from his role as Man Utd manager after a poor start to the season which sees them down in 14th place, with just eleven points from nine matches so far.  Ten Hag has been under fire for most of the two years or so he has been in charge, despite a couple of decent cup wins but more is expected from a Man Utd manager who has spent some £564 million on players, although whether he was actually responsible for all those signings is up for debate. 

 

Man Utd haven’t been firing on all cylinders since Ferguson retired in 2013.  They are a long way from being title contenders and any new manager will have their work cut out, that’s for sure.  Ruud van Nistelrooy is the interim head coach, Ruben Amorim is being touted as the prime target for the permanent job. If he doesn’t want it, I’ll give it a go.

 

Have a great day, enjoy what could be the last of the calm before the storm!

 

-  13.00 US house price index

-  14.00 US consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings

-  19.30 BoCs Macklem speaks

-  00.30 AUS CPI, retail sales

 

1 view0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Comments


© 2020 Island FX Ltd.

bottom of page