Good morning
Better than expected US retail sales data sent USD a touch higher yesterday afternoon, GBPUSD trading from 1.2865 to 1.2800 and EURUSD from 1.1010 to 1.0950. USDJPY was a clear winner with the pair trading up from 147.20 to 149.20 on the release. EURUSD has since struggled to recover despite a weaker USD overnight, EURUS now 1.0985. However GBPUSD recouped all losses by the London close and better UK retail sales this morning, including an upward revision to the previous months data, has helped push GBPUSD to a high around 1.2885. USDJPY is holding around 149.00, which puts GBPJPY around 192.00
With GBP pushing higher and EUR struggling, GBPEUR is now back above 1.1700, actually reaching 1.1730 after the UK data this morning, a pretty decent move given that just over one week ago we were below 1.1600. In fact, it was only last week that we saw the massive equity market sell-off which included a 12% drop in the Nikkei and global equities suffering major losses. This seems long forgotten. We are not at all-time highs, but we are back up to the sort of levels we reached before the rout. Even USDJPY is back up at 149.00 The panic is over, for now at least.
On the subject of panic, I mentioned the mpox outbreak just yesterday, and this morning I read that a case has been found in Sweden, the first outside Africa. UK are said to be making plans to educate doctors and help them recognise cases quickly to ensure speedy diagnosis and treatment of infection.
In the US, Kamala Harris is now favourite to win the November election, overtaking Trump in the betting. I have to say I have been unimpressed with Harris so far, and I have to repeat myself that out of 330 million or so people the US must surely be able to find better candidates.
The new Premier League season begins today with Man Utd taking on Fulham this evening. The highlight of the weekend could be Chelsea v Man City on Sunday. Spurs play newly promoted Leicester on Monday evening. Difficult to bet against Man City but I have a sneaky feeling that they may struggle this season and that the likes of Chelsea and Man Utd could be back in the running. Chelsea at over 3-1 look reasonable value.
As I mentioned yesterday, I’m away for the next couple of weeks on a European tour. Mark is of course on hand to help with anything that may arise in my absence. I am rather hoping the markets will continue to show calm while I am away, it’ll be September when I’m back and I am sure all talk then will be about whether the ECB, Fed and BoE will be cutting rates in their meetings on 12th, 18th and 19th Sept respectively.
For the record, current currency levels are shown below, I’ll be interested to see how much movement we have while I’m away:
GBPUSD 1.2875, EURUSUD 1.0980, USDJPY 149.00, GBPEUR 1.1725, GBPJPY 191.80, GBPAUD 1.9420, GBPNZD 2.1400, GBPCAD 1.7670, XAUUSD 2,450.
Until then, have a great couple of weeks and enjoy what is left of the summer. It’ll be hot where I’m going, although the forecast suggests the UK will be in for some sunshine and mid-20°c temperatures. That’s not too unreasonable. Right, off to pack and attack the list of chores my wife has created for me to get done before we leave. I’ll need a holiday after getting all that done!
- 13.30 US housing starts, building permits
- 15.00 US Michigan sentiment survey
- 18.25 Feds Goolsbee speaks
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