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  • richard evans

USD strength continues, USDCNY fixes above 7.00

Good morning

USD continues to make gains with GBPUSD dipping below 1.2400, EURUSD trading as low as 1.0760 and USDJPY hitting 138.75 overnight. We are a little off those highs now, each trading 1.2410, 1.0780 and 138.15 respectively. Optimism around a possible debt limit agreement seems to be the key reason for USD strength.

I’d put a lot of the move down to various comments suggesting the Fed won’t pause their rate rise cycle and we should expect another 25bps rise at their next meeting on 14th June. Powell speaks later today, his words as usual be closely monitored for any clues regarding a rate rise or a pause although I’m not sure he’ll give much away at this stage. At the last Fed meeting the message was that a pause may be appropriate but the Fed may not yet be finished raising rates.

The stronger USD has also led to a high fix in USDCNY. It was fixed at 7.0356, some 389 points higher than the previous day and the first time we have fixed above 7.0000 this year. There had been a little talk of official intervention but the general feeling seems to be that Yuan depreciation is within reasonable ranges and is expected to remain stable.

Japan CPI came in stronger than expected overnight which did drag USDJPY down from its highs around 138.75 to the low 138s but the data suggests BoJ may need to act with some tightening of policy or risk lagging behind the curve. Yen has been very tricky recently, I’ve previously looked at downside USDJPY trades only to see the pair push higher, these seem like decent levels to buy Yen but I’m not rushing into anything.

Otherwise we await remarks from G7, further sanctions on Russia are likely and I’m sure there will be the odd warning about the disaster awaiting the global economy should the US default.

Facing a disaster of their own yesterday was Peterborough Utd who took a 4-0 lead going into the second leg of their play-off match against Sheffield Wednesday, only to see Sheffield W score four of the own in normal time and take the match to penalties, which Sheffield W duly won. Seems fair really given Sheffield finished 19 points above Peterborough in the table. Sheffield will now face Barnsley or Bolton who play their match this evening.

Premier League matches over the weekend will be interesting as clubs battle for European places at one end of the table and strive to avoid relegation at the other. Congratulations to West Ham for reaching the final of the Europa conference league in a match tainted by some bad scenes after the final whistle. West Ham will face Fiorentina in the final.

Have a great weekend, the weather looks like it will be pretty decent but do spare a thought for the people in the area of Italy where the F1 grand prix should have taken place. Devastating floods have claimed several lives and led to thousands of people being evacuated. The grand prix at Imola has been called off. The next race is in Monaco next weekend. Anyone with spaces on their superyacht do let me know……

- 09.00 ECB economic bulletin

- 13.30 CAD retail sales

- 13.45 Feds Williams speaks

- 14.00 Feds Bowman speaks

- 15.55 ECBs Schnabel speaks

- 16.00 Feds Powell speaks

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