Good morning
US data releases will be one hour earlier at 12.30 or 14.00 london time due to the US clock changes that took place recently.
In addition, FX option expiries will be 14.00 london time, not the usual 15.00 london time.
This will be until Sunday 31st when we change our clocks in the UK.
All remains reasonably quite in the currency world, the US dollar has retreated a little which puts GBPUSD now at 1.2650 and EURUSD at 1.0840, leaving GBPEUR around 1.1665. USDJPY remains in the 151’s, now 151.30. Some of this USD weakness could be down to a Mrgan Stanley report that suggests the US investment house is looking for four rate cut from the Fed this year, with 25bps cuts being seen in June, Sept, Nov and Dec. That’s quite a call given the general feeling that we’ll see fewer cuts this year.
We have heard some verbal intervention from Japan FinMin Suzuki who has repeated his position that they are watching levels closely will act to address disorderly currency moves. As I said yesterday, this is either having little market impact, or is serving to contain further yen weakness. Difficult to tell.
Chinese Yuan is offering some interest with USDCNY trading sharply lower yesterday morning but crept higher through the day and then too another leg higher this morning. Now 7.2180, the key is how low China are setting their daily fix. This morning it was down at 7.0943, no real bearing on the actual currency rate but a sign of PBoC stamping their authority on the currency markets. USDCNH is running a few points higher than USDCNY, now 7.2470.
With a limited calendar today I can’t really find much insightful wisdom to share. Thursday looks like being the bigger day with UK and US GDP, and then the US core PCE deflator on Friday. Hopefully by then we’ll be tucking into our Easter Eggs.
I was reading recently about the Avanti West Coast train company that has agreed an overtime rate of £600 for its drivers. The Sunday Times suggests that this means some drivers could now earn over £100,000 each year. The deal has come amid criticism over cancellations, delays and generally poor service. I’m not sure whether this will encourage drivers to not go on strike, my guess is it won’t make the slightest bit of difference. My eldest is looking for a new career, I’m wondering whether a train driver is a decent choice? Money sounds OK but its surely got to be lonely and boring.
England take on Belgium this evening in a friendly, while Scotland take on Northern Ireland. Wales will be fighting for Euro 2024 qualification against Poland this evening. The friendly between Spain and Brazil may offer a good indication of how good, or otherwise, Englands performance against Brazil was at the weekend.
I won’t waste any more of your time this morning, have a great day and enjoy any morning sunshine you may have. My forecasts suggests it’s turning very wet and windy this afternoon.
- 12.30 US durable goods
- 14.00 US consumer confidence
- 19.00 ECBs Lane speaks
- 00.30 AUS monthly CPI