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  • richard evans

US out for Independence Day, RBA set to raise rates

Good morning

Well it’s a US holiday today, Independence Day, which does generally mean less activity later in the day. It doesn’t feel like a time to sit back and take it easy though, Fridays decline in GBPUSD to 1.1980 has shown how vulnerable GBP is at the moment, while for EURUSD a big level is forming around the 1.0380 area, and with the pair now 1.0435 we are close enough for that to be of real interest. GBPUSD has recovered to 1.2115 which feels a little more comfortable but that main upside area at 1.2320 is still a long way off.

ECB are said to be looking at ways of stopping banks who borrowed from ECB at very low rates during the Covid panic from making large windfall profits by depositing those same funds with the ECB at higher rates.

So it could prove to be quiet today and the calendar is pretty quiet through the week from the UK, although we do have EU retail sales and ECB minutes this week. From the US we will have ISM, ADP employment, and on Friday the all-important nonfarm payroll data. We will also have the June FOMC minutes which are surely likely to sound hawkish given the inflation concerns and 75bps rate rise.

Before all that, the next RBA rate announcement will be in the early hours of tomorrow morning. With rates currently 0.85%, a 50bps rise seems to be the most likely although I know there had been talk of both a 75bps move to match the Fed, there could also be a case for just 25bps. Lets stick with the middle ground. For the record AUDUSD currently 0.6860, AUDNZD 1.0995 and GBPAUD 1.7680. A 50bpos raise with no surprise announcements from the statement should see AUD unchanged, in deed such a rise but with caution that 50bps is not the new normal could see AUD decline a little.

I should mention Covid cases, numbers are certainly on the increase once again, with 2.3million people in the UK currently testing positive, some 600,000 more than the previous week. This is still well below the highs from earlier in the year but let us not ignore the threat this increase poses to the NHS. Even if the cases are generally less severe, the sheer number of cases is likely to put pressure on medical services again. It looks as though the governments idea of ‘living with covid’ will be tested in the coming months.

In Ukraine, Russia continue to make advances in the East, reportedly taking control of the Luhansk region after Ukraine forces withdrew from Lysychansk. The question now is what Russias intentions really are. Will they stop there, or will they try to continue through the rest of Ukraine.

I was at Silverstone this weekend for the F1 although not on race day. You really need to be there to appreciate the speeds, particularly cornering speeds, that the cars achieve. Really, it seems to defy physics. The cars are really quite incredible, and fortunately safe. Not sure if you saw it, but there was a rather sickening crash at the start which saw one car slide upside down across the track and through the gravel, before getting lodged between the tyre barrier and the fence. It looked bad, really bad. The driver was removed from the car, taken to the medical centre, but was released uninjured. Incredible.

- 14.30 CAD S&P manufacturing PMI

- 15.30 BoC business outlook survey

- 23.00 NZ NZIER business confidence

- 00.00 AUS S&P services PMI

- 00.30 Japan household spending

- 02.45 China caixin services PMI

- 05.30 RBA rate announcement

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