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  • richard evans

US Independence Day means quiet markets, nonfarms tomorrow could liven things up

Good morning

 

The US dollar weakened yesterday afternoon, helped along by yet another soft PMi reading, this time in the form of the ISM services release.  GBPUSD traded up from 1.2700, where it had spent most of the morning, to hit 1.2775, while EURUSD traded up to 1.0815 from the mid-1.07s, both hitting the highest levels seen since before I went on holiday back in mid-June.  However as we have seen many times we failed to hold those levels and as I type GBPUSD and EURUSD are 1.2750 and 1.0790 respectively, the USD perhaps helped by FOMC minutes that suggest Fed are comfortable with a ‘wait and see’ policy, in no great rush to cut rates. 

 

GBPEUR is 1.1815, I’m still surprised as the resilience of GBP ahead of the general election.  The polling stations are open and by this time tomorrow we’ll know just how large the Labour majority will be, with some suggesting we could see a new record.  I remain amazed at just how weak the Tories have been, looking back it was really probably since Truss too the helm that the real decline started, although the highly damaging infighting started well before then. 

 

France will have its second round elections this weekend.  Le Pen is set for victory but the other parties are conspiring to ensure she does not get the 289 seats required for full control, latest polls suggest RN and its allies will win around 200 seats.  In the US, Biden has insisted he will not be stepping down despite the ongoing questions over his health, there has been some suggestion he could even be asked to stand down if he didn’t do so voluntarily.  Trump holds a lead in the polls and is still form favourite at the bookies to win in November.  Kamala Harris is now second favourite ahead of Biden, demonstrating the possibility that Biden won’t stand.

 

Not a huge amount to add today, it is a very light calendar with just the ECB minutes from the last meeting to come this afternoon.  We expect a quiet day given the US holidays and lack of new positioning ahead of the US nonfarms tomorrow. 

 

Have a great day, don’t forget to vote….

 

-  12.30 ECB minutes

 

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