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US holiday likely to lead to quiet markets

Good morning


I’m going to keep things brief this morning for two reasons.  First, its US holiday which is likely to make the day rather quiet, particularly with the lack of any economic data from UK or EU to contend with.  And second, I overslept so am running late.  Doesn’t happen very often, you’d think they extra sleep would make you feel brighter but it actually seems like the contrary is true.


Anyway, looking back to Friday, higher than expected PPI numbers from the US served to keep USD near its highs, GBPUSD was down in the mid-125s while EURUSD dipped to 1.0735.  A softer than expected Michigan sentiment survey however seemed to be the catalyst for some USD selling, sending both pairs higher, and as I type GBPUSD is at 1.2620, EURUSD 1.0780, GBPEUR 1.0705. 


USDJPY is holding around the 150.00 area, having tested up to 150.65 post-PPI and then reversing after the Michigan data.  There has been something of a lack of verbal intervention and no sign of yen buying despite this idea of higher rates at some point.  Elsewhere in Asia, China reopened after the new year holidays, their equity markets finished around 1-1.5% higher


In Ukraine, this week marks the second anniversary of the Russian invasion.  Things may not have gone Russia’s way initially, all credit to Ukraine for that, although for now Russian forces seem to have the upper hand, having finally taken Avdiiivka from weary and under-armed Ukrainians.  No sign of peace here unfortunately.  In Gaza, no sign of peace either, Israel have issued a deadline of 10th March by which all remaining hostages must be released or they will begin a full offensive against Rafah.  I’m not sure if it is a coincidence that 10th March marks the start of Ramadan.


Turning to sport over the weekend, anyone hoping to get up and watch an exciting morning of test cricket will be disappointed.  England lost by 434 runs after having scored just 122 all out in their second innings.  Spurs lost just to add to the disappointment, and Harry Kane is finding that moving to a dominant team isn’t necessarily going to bring trophies, his team Bayern Munich lost to mid-table Bochum yesterday leaving Bayern 8 points adrfit from leaders Bayer Leverkusen.


I’ll leave it there for now.  Have a great start to the week, could be quiet today but should pick up as the week goes on. 


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