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  • richard evans

US dollar continues to hold gains

Good morning

The US dollar continues to steadily grind higher ahead of US inflation data this afternoon which is expected to show a rise of around 0.5% for July. The higher the reading, the more chance of Fed starting to reduce asset purchases. I’d mentioned in late July that there had been talk August is good for the dollar, 9 out of the last 15 it has ended higher, will this month make it 10 out of 16? Biden has at last got a US$1 trillion infrastructure package through the Senate, taking some of that uncertainty away.

GBPUSD and EURUSD are good indicators of USD strength, with GBPUSD currently down at 1.3815 and EURUSD at 1.1710. This leaves EURGBP at 0.8475 (GBPEUR 1.1800). No major UK data today, but early tomorrow morning sees GDP, trade balance and industrial production releases. That lot should be enough to keep GBP traders on their toes.

AUD a little lower on the back of weaker consumer confidence numbers which shouldn’t be a surprise given the new lockdowns introduced. Melbourne is also facing a lockdown, while officials say

herd immunity won’t work against delta variant, indeed even fully vaccinated people still being infected. To prove the point, infection rates in Israel continue to grow and they are introducing booster shots, I am sure they will be closely watched by other nations. Meanwhile Merkel is trying to encourage Germans to get vaccinated as they plan to withdraw free testing from October.

The UK Government is reported to have ordered 35 million doses for next year from Pfizer at a cost of something around £30 per jab. Pfizer have apparently put their prices up due to increased demand. I guess this is fair enough. If Messi can earn his £500k/week or whatever it may be, Pfizer should surely be able to profit from producing an effective life-saving vaccine. Just sounds expensive doesn’t it?

I have mentioned football a few times this week, not surprising given the fact the Premier League begins in just two days time. What I have not mentioned is the mighty Harefield Utd, playing U15s this coming season. We must be doing something right as I now have a waiting list of players who want to sign up, while other local clubs are struggling to attract players. All sounds great but with so many players in the squad it is difficult to get decent match time for all of them. Anyway, first training session later today. After doing little for the past few months, I’m not sure who is going to be more tired, them or me.

- 13.30 US CPI

- 19.00 US monthly budget statement

- 00.01 UK RICS house prices

- 02.00 AUS consumer inflation expectations

- 04.00 RBNZ inflation expectations

- 07.00 UK GDP, trade balance, industrial production

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