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  • richard evans

RBA, BoE, ECB rate announcements this week

Good morning

USD a little weaker this morning, perhaps comments from Feds Kashkari suggesting he isn’t quite as hawkish as some other Fed officials has made the markets slightly less certain that a string of rate rises are just around the corner. One comment isn’t really enough to change the outlook but just maybe the Fed are not as unanimous as we’d expected. Feds Bostic meanwhile has suggested a 50bps rise is possible, as you know I do think this is a likely option.

Beijing Olympics begins this week, coinciding with Chinese New Year celebrations and also a rise in Covid cases. 2022 is the year of the tiger although it is bear of Russia that continues to create headlines with its ongoing threat of a Ukraine invasion. More talk of sanctions, with some of Putins oligarch friends potentially a target, but for now NATO says it has no plans to deploy troops to Ukraine. EU are worried that they are very reliant on gas supplies from Russia, probably as reliant as Russian is on the income it generates.

RBA rate announcement due overnight, plenty of thinking they will be a little more hawkish than previous meetings, signalling perhaps an earlier start to rate rises. At the moment markets seem to price in a small rise for May which is when QE is set to end. RBA however have recently made it clear they see no need for rate rises through 2022. Question is whether we see a similar message this time around or a suggestion that we may see a rise in 2022. For the record AUDUSD now 0.7045, AUDNZD 1.0705.

Turkeys Erdogan has been busy this weekend, sacking the heads of the Stats department ahead of inflation number release later this week. Inflation is said to be close to 50% but I wouldn’t be surprised if Erdogan manages to eke out a number that matches his lower inflation requirements slightly better.

UK look set to raise rates this week, GBP has had a reasonable start to the week but I’m not sure GBP will fly higher given a 25bps rise must surely be pretty well priced in. GBPUSD up to 1.3440 as I type, EURGBP 0.8315 (GBPEUR 1.2025). EUR remains weak despite some talk of a possible ECB rate rise, albeit Q1 2023 so ovre3 a year away.

There should have been little in the way of Premiership news over the weekend but unfortunately one players alleged actions have made the headlines. Last day of the transfer window today could bring about some exciting news. On the subject of exciting news, I am pleased to report that my U15s had yet another cup victory yesterday, a comfortable 3-1 victory enough to put us through to the next round. Cup ties coming up over the next two weekends as well which will see us fall further behind in league matches played. We still have 16 league matches to play, there are not enough weekends available to play them so we’ll certainly be seeing some midweek action through April and May when it’s a bit lighter in the evening.

- 10.00 EU GDP

- 13.00 EU CPI

- 14.45 US Chicago PMI

- 21.45 NZ trade balance

- 23.30 Japan unemployment

- 00.30 AUS retail sales

- 03.30 RBA rate announcement

- 07.00 German retail sales

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