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  • richard evans

Quiet markets, might as well watch some football

Good morning

I’ll start by offering my congratulations to the England team for a solid win against Iran yesterday. OK, so Iran may not be the best team in the world but we have struggled before against lowly opposition, it was great to see us dominate although the purists will of course worry about conceding two goals, even if one of them was a dubious penalty. But a win is a win. We look forward to Friday for England v USA. Before then, plenty of football, with four matches each day.

I watched the football yesterday with one of the larger investment banks we work with, at a pub in the City. The lucky ones were out of the dealing room, but those left back at the office reported very quiet market conditions. With Thanksgiving coming up they didn’t seem too hopeful that things would liven up this week. Oil traders would perhaps have been busier, with prices falling on rumours of a Saudi production increase, before climbing again as the Saudi energy minister denied the claims.

Not much on todays calendar unless you’re looking at USDCAD, GBPCAD etc as we have their retail sales and DepGov of BoC Rogers speaking. I don’t look at CAD as much as a probably should but I know its been on a bit of a wild ride over the past couple of months. Down at 1.2950 in mid-Sept, it rallied to almost 1.4000 by mid-Oct before dropping back to 1.3225 by mid-Nov. Now at 1.3400, difficult to call when way it goes but 1.2950 is, for me, a major long term level to watch. I’ll look at some option ideas to see if there is anything interesting.

RBNZ rate announcement due overnight. A 75bps rise to 4.25% seems to be the favoured outcome and NZD does seem to have found some support ahead of the announcement. NZDUSD currently 0.6135, GBPNZD 1.9305 and AUDNZD just below 1.0800. A smaller rate rise is likely to see a sell-off in NZD. 20 usd pips buys an overnight 0.6100 NZDUSD put, just in case. RBNZ could however mention potential for a higher peak in rates, as the Fed did recently.

For the record GBPUSD currently 1.1840, EURUSD 1.0272 and GBPEUR 1.1525. Don’t have much more to offer today so I’ll leave it there. Just an hour or so to go until Argentina v Saudi Arabia. Could be a bit of a goal-fest. Time for some admin stuff before that kicks off.

- 13.30 CAD retail sales

- 15.00 EU consumer confidence

- 16.45 BoCs Rogers speaks

- 22.00 AUS S&P manufacturing, services PMI

- 01.00 RBNZ rate announcement

- 02.00 RBNZ press conference

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