• richard evans

Putin invades, in the name of peace

Good morning

One of those days where the likes of twitter will be flooded with people commenting its 22.02.2022 which in reality means nothing at all but does look a bit different to most other dates. And while I normally scoff at people who comment on such things, I appear to have done so myself. Apologies.

Anyway main news still is Ukraine and Putins announcement that he recognises separatist held areas, Luhansk and Donetsk, and will send in peace keeping forces. Some reports suggest Russian tanks are already on the move so whether you whether you call it an invasion or not, it is happening. Dare I say, a fairly clever piece of work, to invade under the guise of peace-keeping. Whether he stops at those disputed areas or moves through the rest of Ukraine remains to be seen, I think he’ll move across the whole country under a ‘only way to keep it peaceful’ notion.

The markets don’t like it, European exchanges were already down around 2% by the close, Asian markets followed suit and futures prices indicate Europe stocks will fall further on the open this morning. Sanctions already being discussed and I think these are likely to be very harsh compared to previous sanctions, This is a different ball game.

In currencies, US dollar is firmer, the safe havens such as CHF and JPY also push higher, with EURCHF dropping back below 1.0350 and USDJPY to 114.50. They are a little off those highs now. GBPUSD has skipped back to 1.3565, EURUSD below 1.1300 which leave EURGBP 0.8330 (GBPEUR 1.2005).

UK PM Johnson has confirmed Covid restrictions will end, it comes as reports say the most vulnerable of people will be given another booster this spring, I presume to keep them safe given Covid is likely to be more prevalent in society in the coming months, particularly as Covid-positive people are no longer required to isolate.

If, and I know it is a big ‘IF’, UK has got through the worst of Covid and can really say it is back on track despite the virus still doing the rounds, I have to say it has been a very successful job by the government. OK, the costs have been great, in terms of financial, health, well-being for many. Yes, there have been mistakes, and certainly errors of judgement. But we’ve got through some really difficult times and can now hopefully look forward to better things.

Finally, a quick word on RBNZ tonight, we have a rate announcement where an increase of 25bps, as they did back in November, to 1% looks most likely, some talk of it possibly being 50ps but I don’t think they are that far behind the curve to warrant a move of that size. For the record, NZDUSD currently 0.6715, AUDNZD 1.0730. That 25bps rise is pretty much priced in so wouldn’t expect much of a knee-jerk reaction.

- 09.00 German IFO

- 10.45 BoEs Ramsden speaks

- 14.45 US markit manufacturing, services PMI

- 15.00 US consumer confidence

- 00.30 AUS wage prices

- 01.00 RBNZ rate announcement

- 02.00 RBNZ press conference


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