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  • richard evans

Powell talks up the USD with rate rise warning

Good morning

They shall not grow old, as we that are left grow old Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn

At the going down of the sun and in the morning

We will remember them.

Laurence Binyon, 1914

UK GDP this morning actually managed to beat expectations, Q3 coming in at 0% with an annual rate of 0.6%, and even though the starting point was pretty low (-0.1%, 0.5%) it is still better than nothing. GBP is pretty much unmoved on the release, perhaps the weaker industrial and manufacturing data that came as well has prevented the market getting carried away. GBPUSD is down near the lows at 1.2230 while GBPEUR is around 1.1465. BoEs Pill had been on the dovish side yesterday, suggesting interest rates are already restrictive enough to tackle inflation and that further rate rises may not be necessary. However don’t expect rate cuts any time soon, Pill made it clear rates would have to be restrictive for an extended period of time.

Feds Powell had sent USD higher yesterday when he made sure markets got the message that Fed were not confident they had yet done enough to bring inflation down and that further rate rises remain a possibility. Whether we see another rate rise in December or into 2024, there seems to be an increased risk of Fed having to tighten a little further, their thoughts are that any stronger than expected growth could undermine the battle against inflation.

Other Fed officials also make clear that the door remains open for further tightening if it seems that they are losing control on inflation. Barkin was perhaps the slightly more dovish Fed official, saying previous Fed rate rises are not yet fully felt by the economy and that a slowdown is on its way.

The comments drove USD higher, with GBPUSD reaching a low of 1.2220, EURUSD to 1.0660 and USDJPY up to 151.40, all are still within a few points of their respective lows and highs. We all laugh at UK politics but Europe are in a similar mess, this time it is the Portugese Prime Minister who has resigned amid a corruption probe. Corruption? Surely not! It is all to do with Lithium, something Portugal seems to have and could be a great source of the element if China choose to limit our access. Could be worth a lot of money to Portugal.

RBA released their monetary policy statement overnight and as other major central banks have done they made it clear the inflation risk remains high and as such interest rates need to stay high. Both inflation and GDP forecasts were raised a little. RBA had considered keeping rates on hold at their last meeting but decided more action was needed in the battle against inflation, while the economy remains a little stronger than expected. AUD has been underwhelmed so far though, AUDUSD is down at 0.6360 while GBPAUD trades up at 1.9225, pretty much the November highs.

Bitcoin had a bit of a wild day yesterday, trading up from around $36,600 to almost $38,000, before dropping almost 7% to $35,800. It finished not far from where it started at $36,300, I have seen no sensible explanation behind the move but then again I haven’t really seen any sensible explanation as to why we needs Bitcoin in the first place.

I have an uneasy feeling about this weekend’s Armistice Day and just hope that our remembrance is not disrupted in any way by protestors, peaceful or otherwise. I don’t like some of the protests we have seen recently, many of which are supposed to be peaceful but as we know that is not always the case and deep down the notion of peace is simply an excuse for confrontation. The majority of people are moderate and choose to stay away from such events but as is the case so often it is the shouting of the few that is heard most and therefore is considered to be the majority view. We are well aware of the attacks on Israel and the crisis in Gaza but I, and many others, would be deeply unhappy if our acts of remembrance were affected by any form of protest, peaceful or otherwise.

I have an equally uneasy feeling about Spurs’ chances against Wolves tomorrow, I’m not even sure we have enough players with so many suspended or injured after the madness against Chelsea earlier in the week. I was so lost for words I didn’t write anything in this report about the match but fair to say my overriding feeling was a state of utter disbelief with a little disgust thrown in. No more of that thank you. With the early kick off on Saturday Spurs could actually regain top spot as Man City don’t play until Sunday, Spurs are favourites to win the match but a lot depends on the team they manage to scrape together.

To round off my uneasy feeling, Englands cricket team will take on Pakistan in their last match of the tournament and I don’t really fancy our chances in that. We are out of it,

Have a great weekend, I hope the rain doesn’t disrupt Diwali celebrations on Sunday. I don’t mind the fireworks but the dog isn’t a great fan. Mind you it makes him even more inclined to snuggle up on the sofa so perhaps with the dark evenings well and truly upon its time to crack open a new box set. I’m told Succession is pretty good so I might start with that.

- 12.30 ECBs Lagarde speaks

- 14.00 Feds Bostic speaks

- 15.00 US Michigan sentiment survey

- 15.20 ECBs Nagel speaks

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