Good morning
After the disappointing UK data Friday morning sent GBP lower, the rest of the day was actually pretty quiet. GBPUSD traded to 1.2610 into Fridays close, since reopening we’ve seen a smidge of USD weakness which as seen GBPUSD mostly around the 1.2630 region and EURUSD up from 1.0485 to 1.0515 or so.
GBP continues to lose ground against EUR, actually reaching a low overnight around 1.2010, now 1.2025. The GBP drop against EUR from its highs just last week of around 1.2160 comes despite Moodys downgrading French credit rating as it sees limited potential for the incoming government to deal with fiscal deficits. Some mildly hawkish talk from ECBs Kazaks, who warned about cutting rates too much, has perhaps given EUR a slight boost. More EU official speaking today.
Overnight China retail sales numbers came in lower than expected which put pressure not just on Chinese stocks but also across the entire region. Friday brings the latest PBoC rate decision although despite plenty of talk of renewed stimulus, they are expected to keep rates on hold. Meanwhile the USD weakness since the open has seen Bitcoin trade up to $105,000
Today is all about PMIs, with data from EU, UK and US all set to hit the screens. Aussie PM out overnight missed to the downside and with some recent global doom and gloom, weaker data and softer outlooks there is a decent chance numbers out today will have a soft feel to them.
I always think this is the week where we should be happily winding down for Christmas but there is little chance of that. While the FOMC rate meeting is likely to be the highlight, we have plenty of other releases and announcements to keep us busy, including:
Tuesday – UK unemployment, CAD CPI, US retail sales
Wednesday – UK inflation, EU inflation, FOMC rate announcement, NZ GDP
Thursday – BoJ rate announcement, BoE rate announcement, US GDP
Friday – UK retail sales, US core PCE, CAD retail sales,
As for the weekend just gone, well it was a pretty decent one at this end, we even had some sun and blue sky for a time which was most welcome. In football, the Manchester derby wasn’t the greatest spectacle but did have an exciting finish as Utd scored two goals in the last couple of minutes to beat a not so impressive City side. Spurs scored five first half goals to beat Southampton who have since relieved their manager of his duties, while Forest jumped into the top four with a brilliant win over Villa.
I never understand how cricket can turn results on its head. England, who blew away New Zealand in the second test, are now on the receiving end of a drubbing, still needing a frankly ridiculous 640 runs in their second innings after being all out for 143 in their first innings.
And the other highlight of the week I guess was the Strictly Come Dancing final which saw Chris McCausland crowned as the series winner. I’d not watched any of the previous weeks but have to say the final was something of an emotional affair and certainly a spectacle of what can be achieved with the right focus, teaching and partnerships. For those who have been living in another universe, McCausland is blind. While his dancing wasn’t quite up to the standard of other competitors, the way he overcame his blindness to put on some incredible shows was exactly the sort of feel-good stuff we need and should be a reminder to all of how weaknesses can be overcome.
On that uplifting note, have a great day
- 09.00 EU manufacturing, services PMI
- 09.30 UK S&P manufacturing, services PMI
- 12.00 ECBs Wunsch speaks
- 13.00 ECBs Excriva speaks
- 13.30 US NY empire state manufacturing index
- 14.45 US S&P manufacturing, services PMI
- 16.30 ECBs Schnabel speaks
- 20.45 BoCs Macklem speaks
- 23.30 AUS westpac consumer confidence
- 07.00 UK unemployment
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