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  • richard evans

Netflix shares fall over 35% on low subscriber numbers

Good morning

First things to note is EUR and GBP both slightly higher, EURUSD 1.0915 and GBPUSD 1.3070, bringing EURGBP to 0.8350 (1.1975). This is quite a move for the single currency, having been weaker against GBP for a weak or so. Macron remaining favourite to win the French election after yesterdays TV debate must have helped, polls suggest 59% found Macron more convincing and her is now odds on favourite at the bookies with Le Pen trailing at 12-1. Still think a cheap downside EURUSD option over the weekend is a reasonable idea for anyone at risk should Le Pen emerge victorious. Unliely maybe, but you never know….

USDCNY remains bid, driven by expectations that PBoC will have to ease monetary policy at a time when many other central banks are tightening. USDCNY fixed at 6.4098, the first fix over 6.40 since Nov 2021. USDCNY has traded to 6.4500 this morning. Chinas President Xi said the global economic recovery was weak, no great surprise there but worth noting there is also a thought that recent excitement over ‘western’ interest rate rises could have gone a bit too far. As you know I’d wondered whether the Fed would consider a 75bps rise next time, that seems to be unlikely, but is it possible inflation is peaking and rate rises won’t need to be as severe as perhaps first thought.

JPY remains weak, USDJPY currently 128.00 but EURJPY is within a few points of 140, helped of course by the shift higher in EUR, while GBPJPY at 167.35 is elevated but still 100 pips or so off the recent highs. Japan inflation numbers due overnight, no one is looking for a very strong reading but a particularly weak reading could lead to talk of BoJ easing which in turn could see a weaker Yen. However I’m not expecting significant market moves.

Weak NZ inflation numbers sent NZD lower overnight, NZDUSD from 0.6805 to 0.6770 while AUDNZD moved higher from 1.0945 to 1.0995. These moves are not huge but could be significant given RBNZ had raised rates 50bps earlier this month and feeling was they would raise a further 50bps in May. Will this reading alter their thinking?

Netflix is having a rough time, its shares feel over 35% yesterday to $226 as it reported lower subscriber numbers, bear in mind shares were up at $700 back in Nov. I’ve watched quite a lot on Netflix over the past couple of years, but I think I’m a long way from cancelling my subscription.

We hear from Powell and Lagarde later today as they attend an IMF panel, before then we hear from BoEs Mann and Bailey, both likely to sound a little dovish but whether that takes the wind out of GBP sails remains to be seen. UK retail sales out early tomorrow morning, as we saw with US recently there is a chance that any strong data here could be more down to high prices than high demand.

I’m running a little late this morning so I’m going to leave it there for now, one of those days where I admit that I feel I have missed something important but can’t put my finger on what it could be.

- 10.00 EU HICP

- 13.30 US initial jobless claims, philly fed survey

- 14.00 BoEs Mann speaks

- 15.00 EU consumer confidence

- 16.00 Feds Powell speaks

- 17.30 BoEs Bailey speaks

- 18.00 Feds Powell, ECBs Lagarde speak

- 00.01 UK GfK consumer confidence

- 00.30 Japan CPI

- 07.00 UK retail sales

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