Good morning
Running a tad late this morning. My youngest has started boxing and needed a medical before he can fight. So we went to see the doctor at a boxing evening and ended up staying to watch. Pretty brutal. My son is seventeen, very late to be starting any new sport, let alone one where people are hitting you. Ages last night ranged from ten years old up to over twenty years, across various weight classes.
Fights are pretty short, three rounds of two minutes each, but its full on stuff and you have to be very fit to last the distance. Anyway, it was gone midnight when we got home, he hadn’t been put off in any way whatsoever, so at some point in the near future he’ll be climbing into the ring for a proper bout. Worried? Yes, but hey he’s been training hard so only fair he goes the next step. Who knows, maybe we have the next Joe Calzaghe in our midst.
Anyway, that’s my excuse for being a bit late. So I’ll keep it brief(ish). USD had another spell of weakness overnight, GBPUSD pushed to a high of almost 1.2680 overnight and then tried again to hit those highs after this mornings UK retail sales headline numbers came in well above expectations. However, downward revisions to the previous months data took the shine off the numbers, GBPUSD slipped to 1.2650, now 1.2665.
UK government finance numbers have also been released, a major UK bank highlighting the £15.4bn surplus in January might look great but it is actually £5bn less than OBR had projected back in October. Revisions to previous numbers don’t look great either, taking the cumulative number to £118.2bn, some £12.8bn more than OBR had forecast.
EURUSD followed a similar path, trading up just above 1.0500 overnight before dropping sharply this morning to 1.0470, now ten pips off those lows. This leaves GBPEUR higher at 1.2080, this mornings EU PMI numbers came in a touch below expectations but has had little market impact. As I mentioned yesterday, elections are taking place in Germany this weekend, we should know the results by the market open Sunday night.
The USD weakness comes despite the ongoing message from Fed officials that the 2% inflation target is still some way off and that Fed are in no rush at all to cut rates. I’d really think such comments would at least slow the USD decline, however with UK and EU also seemingly slowing rate cuts perhaps the impact of stable US rates is less than i’d have expected. Indeed, i’ve seen an upside trade recommendation for GBPUSD, very much technical based but its more interesting as it’s the first I have seen for a long time. Upside GBPCHF was also mentioned.
Overnight Japan inflation numbers sent USDJPY down to 149.30, helped in no small part by the already weakening USD. Since those lows it has staged a pretty decent recovery, now 150.40, a further break lower could well be possible with half an eye on the Sept 24 lows of just below 140.00, however I won’t be chasing this one lower.
Ukraine peace talks taking a lot of the headlines as you’d expect. Difficult to work out what the US are really thinking, they have said they don’t want to see phrases such as ‘Russian aggression’ in a G7 communique on Ukraine, which is pretty incredible given Russian was the country that invaded and thereby started the war. US still seem set on ensuring they have access to Ukraine minerals as well, again an odd way to come at peace talks.
To sport over the weekend, Preimer league action sees Spurs take on Ipswich, another must-win match for Spurs, while other key matches sees Aston Villa host Chelsea, the main event surely Man City v Liverpool on Sunday afternoon. Six nations rugby returns, England take on Scotland at Twickenham on Saturday, always guaranteed to be a lively affair. My eldest is going to that, not quite sure where my ticket is!
Any finally, a lot of talk today over dangerous sports such as boxing, but who would have known that kayaking presents huge risks that we perhaps wouldn’t expect. However earlier this week videos emerged of a kayaker in the sea being swallowed whole by a whale, only to then be spat out some thirty seconds or so later. That’s a story not many people get to tell.
Have a great weekend as and when it comes…
- 09.00 EU manufacturing, services PMIs
- 09.30 UK S&P manufacturing, services PMIs
- 13.30 CAD retail sales
- 14.30 ECBs Lane speaks
- 14.45 S&P manufacturing, services PMIs
- 15.00 US Michigan sentiment survey, existing home sales
- 16.30 Feds Daly, Jefferson speak
- 18.00 BoCs Macklem speaks
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