Iran offers plan for opening Strait of Hormuz

Good morning

We had some excellent weather over the weekend, with blue skies and sun shining.  The air was still a bit cold so perhaps if I’m greedy I’d ask for a few more degrees just to make things perfect but boy, what a difference dry, sunny weather makes.  I spent a lot of time in the garden, I admit I have neglected the vegetable patch for some time now so thought it time to tidy that up.  Plenty of stinging nettles, they are unwanted of course, but they are admirable plants really, extremely hardy with an amazing network of roots.  They don’t really get the credit they derserve.

Weekend sport saw Man City and Chelsea proceed to the FA cup final with close wins over Southampton and Leeds respectively.  In the Premier League, Arsenal are back at the top with a win over Newcastle, while Forest have almost secured league safety with a stunning 5-0 win over Sunderland.   Spurs got their first win of 2026, a tight 1-0 over already relegated Wolves.  The win was spoilt a touch by West Ham who got a late winner against Everton which leaves Spurs in the same league position but now with just four matches to escape relegation. 

Funny how small things become massive in football, West Ham really should have conceded a penalty for handball but it wasn’t given.  Everton fans will be rightly aggrieved but that decision may be one that helps sends Spurs down.  Had the penalty been given, Everton would perhaps have won the match and Spurs would be out of the bottom three.  We’ve had a few of these things go against Spurs this season, the reality is that all clubs have decision go against them but when you’re in the relegation zone these events are magnified.

A slight bit of positive news from the Middle East as Iran offers a deal which would see the Strait of Hormuz open while holding off crucial talks on Iranian nuclear capabilities.  However while this would break the current stalemate, it isn’t clear whether the US will go for it.  I have read that Trump has cancelled a trip for peace talks that was going to be made by US negotiators but this may well have been before this latest Iranian proposal.   

We’ve seen some USD selling on mildly better risk sentiment although European equities are a bit mixed on the open.  As I type, GBPUSD is 1.3540, EURUSD 1.1730 and USDJPY 159.25.  GBPEUR is currently 1.1540.

Starmer is facing a tough week as talk of a leadership battle in the Labour party continue, with some suggestions Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner could oppose Starmer, although he has said he believes the majority of the Labour party are behind him and that he will remain leader into the next election.  On top of the leadership talk, Starmer is facing the brunt of Trump’s wrath who has talked about possibly taxing UK tech unless we remove our digital tax, plus there have been reports the US is looking into Britain’s claim to the Falkland Islands. 

Still, there is hope the King’s visit to the US will go some way to restoring our relationship. The trip is going ahead despite the security issues at an event attended by Trump where a man was arrested for opening fire, telling arresting agents he wanted to shoot officials in the Trump administration.  

In other news, I see a person has won ‘Who wants to be a millionaire’ for just the seventh time in the shows history.  The winner is retired…that is not a bad addition to his retirement fund!  He said he has tried for years to get onto the show but has failed until now.  Good on him.

It’s a pretty much non-existent economic calendar today but we have a busy week ahead.  In the early hours of tomorrow morning we have the BoJ rate announcement, the first of many this week including Fed, BoE, ECB and BoC.  If I’m not mistaken I think they are all expected to leave rates unchanged as they try to assess the impact of the Middle East crisis, but the accompanying statements will be of interest.  We’ll also have EU, German and Aussie inflation, EU GDP and also key numbers from the US in GDP and core PCE. 

Have a great day…

-  17.30 ECBs Schnabel speaks

-  00.30 Japan unemployment

-  03.00 BoJ rate announcement

-  07.00 BoJ press conference