Global economic concerns centre stage depsite Trump's best efforts

Good morning

US data releases are still one hour earlier at 12.30 or 14.00 London time. 

FX option expiries will be 14.00 London time, not the usual 15.00 London time.

This will be until this Sunday 29^th March when we change our clocks in the UK.  Back to normal for Monday morning.

UK retail sales numbers this morning were not great but were better than many expected, with upward revisions noted in the previous months data as well.  GBP mostly ignored the numbers, GBPUSD now sits 1.3315, pushed lower by a generally stronger US dollar .  GBPEUR is relatively unchanged around 1.1560 with EURUSD 1.1520.  GBPAUD is at 1.9300 having seen an overnight high of 1.9400, while GBPNZD touched 2.3175 overnight but has since slipped back to 2.3065.  US bond yields are back up towards the highest levels we’ve seen since September 2025 while UK 10 year yields are above 5%, the highest since way back in 2008 if my charts are correct. 

Trump has extended his deadline for a deal with Iran until 6^th April, saying that talk s are going very well despite Iran still refusing to admit talks are taking place.  Who knows what the truth really is.  It would not surprise me at all to discover that more than one group are claiming to now govern Iran, neither would it surprise me to discover Trump is making up this talk of negotiations. Oil prices have been drifting higher for the past day or so but do remain off the highs seen earlier this week.

No surprise that much attention remains on Iran, oil prices and the impact a longer war could have on the global economy.  None of it looks good, US equities were down again yesterday and although but Asian markets were just positive overnight, European markets are not looking so good this morning.  There are real fears of global economic slowdown and I am still seeing talkof potentially huge oil price rises.  Now a Tesla driver,  I don’t pay much attention to prices and the pumps, but I heard that diesel is now over £2/litre in some areas. 

In sport, England host Uruguay this evening and then play Japan next Tuesday, the last matches ahead of the World Cup finals in June.  We also have the Japanese F1 Grand Prix from Suzuka this weekend, fans will need to be up at 6am to watch the main event on Sunday morning assuming they have remembered to change their clocks.   The April races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have been postponed for obvious reasons so this in the last race until the beginning on May. 

Next week brings the end of Q1 which has gone worryingly fast.  In terms of data next week, we have some decent releases on the calendar including UK GDP, inflation from Japan and the EU, US retail sales, ISM services and manufacturing PMIs, plus JOLTS, ADP and challenger job numbers, rounding off with the highlight non-farms payrolls on Friday, which is a bit unfortunate as it’s a UK holiday on both Friday and Monday. 

Have a great day, and a great weekend as and when it comes…

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