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  • richard evans

GBP up on decent employment numbers

Good morning

Firstly, apologies for the lack of report yesterday morning. I had a hospital appointment for my shoulder very early, somehow they were running behind by over an hour even though they can’t possibly have had enough patients to delay them.

I know you are all on the edge of your seats wondering about the weekend football results. Saturday didn’t go quite to plan, we lost 3-1. But Sunday, the big one, my U15s came away with a 2-1 win to lift our first ever trophy. The match was played in a proper football stadium and the players had to climb stairs to receive their medals and trophy. It all felt rather special, I am so pleased for them, really they deserve it.

Asian markets made gains overnight, a bit of positive risk sentiment creeping in which saw stocks higher and USD lower. Not sure if the positivity has come from Russia seeming to accept Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership, although Turkey seem to be doing their best to veto plans. Also helping China was reports from Shanghai that some reopening is taking place after three days of no community Covid transmissions.

UK unemployment came out better than expected this morning, with a larger drop in claimants than forecast and a lower overall unemployment rate. GBP has taken some comfort from this, with GBPUSD trading up above 1.2400 and EURGBP down to 0.8440 (GBPEUR 1.1850). An announcement on the NI protocol is expected today, GBP so far not dented by this. Tomorrow morning we will see the latest UK inflation numbers, widely expected to show further increases. Last month the YoY headline was 7%, it is expected to be up around 9% this time, the highet level for 30 or so years.

RBA minutes offered support for AUD with a suggestion of further rate rises at future meetings, perhaps greater than 25bps. The hope that China could be opening up also helps AUD, which has moved from a low yesterday of 0.6880 to 0.7020 as I type. AUDNZD up at 1.1050, while GBPAUD is currently 1.7680, well off the lows around 1.7605 pre-UK data.

Goldman Sachs have put out a report suggesting USD is nearly 20% overvalued. Comes on the back of last weeks report that suggested USDJPY was 25% overvalued. Does this mean we expect to see GBPUSD up at 1.5000 anytime soon? Can’t see that myself, not with a strong of US rate rises still on the agenda. Kind you UK rates are going up and I see a poll of economists saw all 39 questioned expecting an ECB rate rise in July. EU GDP out this morning, US retail sales will be seen this afternoon.

Just touching back on football for a bit, Spurs seem to have got themselves very near to a place in the Champions league having beaten Burnley at the weekend and seeing Arsenal lose to Newcastle yesterday evening. Spurs need just one point from their match against Norwich on Sunday to claim the valuable fourth spot. Surely nothing can go wrong!

- 10.00 EU GDP

- 13.00 Feds Bullard speaks

- 13.30 US retail sales

- 14.15 US industrial production

- 15.00 US business inventories

- 18.00 ECBs Lagarde speaks

- 19.00 Feds Powell speaks

- 19.30 Feds Mester speaks

- 00.50 Japan GDP

- 01.30 AUS wage prices

- 05.30 Japan industrial production

- 07.00 UK CPI, RPI, PPI

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