Good morning
BoE did leave rates unchanged yesterday in an 8-1 vote, Dhingra was indeed the dissenter. This had been widely expected but feels more hawkish when we look at the scale of the Fed rate cut the day before, and the fact we’d thought at least one other member would see fit to vote for a cut. GBP had a bit of a swing after the announcement, GBPUSD trading up to 1.3315, down to 1.3220, then back up to the high 1.32’s by the London close.
This morning a very healthy set of retail sales numbers from the UK send GBP higher still, reaching 1.3340, while GBPEUR hit that 1.1930 area I mentioned yesterday afternoon. It’s a bit weird as I’ve not met anyone who really thinks our economy is going great guns but, the GfK consumer confidence numbers released overnight were pretty horrific but, for now, with the divergence in UK rates vs US and EU rates, GBP gains could well hold and indeed extend further.
The next BoE meeting comes on 7th November, just a week or so after the budget which is not expected to be very kind on various members of the population. Quite what will happen is yet to be seen but we may well want a rate cut in November to offset our increased tax burden! There is an expectation we’ll get at least one 25bps cut this year, but BoE did make it clear our path of rate cuts is going to be very gradual.
BoJ kept rates on hold overnight, no major surprise there. USDJPY is trading up at 143.30 having seen a low this week around 139.60. Its some way off but 144.45 is a key level for me, I don’t think BoJ will want to see it much higher and I’m sure they’ll be hoping that the Fed rate cut continues to depress the pair.
Worth mentioning the gains in US stocks, which saw the S&P500 up 1.7% to new record highs, Dow Jones up 1.3% and Nasdaq up some 2.5%. Its an interesting quandary for the US stock markets. A rate cut is always likely to push stock prices higher but if that rate is needed because of a slowing economy then surely it’s not such good news. Anyway, Asian markets ended the week on a positive note as well but things aren’t looking so great for European markets so far this morning.
Canada retail sales out this afternoon, otherwise the calendar starts getting full of central bank officials following the various rate announcements this week. BoEs Mann speaks this morning, it will be interesting to hear she has to say about yesterdays decision. ECBs Lagarde speaks this afternoon, never known for big surprises, I’d imagine that will come and go with little fuss.
We’ve had some decent weather this week, certainly the past couple of days, but as we head into the weekend I see warnings of thunderstorms that look set to bring rain into next week, and temperatures to push lower. Ah well, we are nearly in October after all. So, if the weather is bad we might just have to sit inside and enjoy some sport. In the football, Spurs take on Brentford tomorrow afternoon but the key match will be Man City v Arsenal on Sunday. We also have the PGA golf at Wentworth and world champion heavyweight boxing with Joshua vs Dubois.
Have a great weekend as and when it arrives…
- 10.30 BoEs Mann speaks
- 13.30 CAD retail sales
- 15.00 EU consumer confidence
- 16.00 ECBs Lagarde speaks
- 19.00 Feds Harker speaks
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