Good morning
They shall not grow old, as we that are left grow old
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn
At the going down of the sun and in the morning
We will remember them.
Laurence Binyon, 1914
A bit of a mixed day Friday, the US dollar lost a bit of ground early Friday afternoon before slightly better Michigan sentiment numbers along with Trump’s success, helped the US dollar recover. GBPUSD had been up at 1.2975 but dipped to 1.2885, while EURUSD which had been up at almost 1.0800 in the afternoon, traded down 1.0700 by the London close.
Since the open we had a little USD selling but once again this has been shallow and short-lived, and we are now back to 1.2890 in GBPUSD and 1.0680 in EURUSD, which actually marks the lowest level for EUR since June, just surpassing last week’s lows. 1.0665 is the next big level that offered support in June, followed by 1.0600 which we reached in April, so far the low of the year. The EUR weakness is also reflected in GBPEUR which, at 1.2070 marks a new high since April 2022.
CAD unemployment Friday came in mixed, a lower than expected unemployment rate, higher average hourly earnings although a lower net change in employment. CAD was USDCAD has pushed higher amid the broader USD strength, the pair now 1.3925. This was the high Friday, further gains will really only come if this USD move continues.
US are on holiday today for Veterans Day which usually means we’re in for a fairly quiet day. Highlight of the week is likely to be US CPI on Wednesday but we’ll also have UK employment Tuesday, Aussie employment early Thursday morning, EU GDP Thursday, US PPI Thursday afternoon and UK GDP and US retail sales Friday. We’ll also have a host of Fed officials speaking who had been silent for a couple of weeks due to the Fed pre-meeting blackout period. So perhaps not quite the event risk we’ve had over the past couple of weeks but still plenty to keep us on our toes.
Probably best if don’t talk about sport too long this morning. Spurs managed to gift Ipswich Town their first win of the season, at least the second time Spurs have lost to a club in the bottom three this season. My fault really, I got a bit ahead of myself thinking Spurs would win, which, had they done so, would now put them above both Arsenal and Chelsea after their draw yesterday. Instead of taking third place, Spurs sink to 10th in the table. A massive difference. We’re now on yet another international break, with England facign Greece on Thursday and RFepublic of Ireland next Sunday.
England lost the rugby to Australia, I didn’t see much of the game but understand it was a pretty exciting, high-scoring affair which England looked to have won with a late try, only for Australia to nab it deep into injury time. England now face the mighty Springboks next Saturday, likely to be an even tougher test than New Zealand or Australia. Meanwhile, Englands cricketers are back to winning ways, having beaten West Indies in the first two T20 matches over the weekend, both pretty decisive victories.
I did manage to pick up plenty of leaves at the weekend but looking out now there is another layer already on the lawn, but the trees are still far from bare. It’s feeling chilly outside but highs still around 11°c which I’ll take for this time of year. Starting to get cold overnight mind you.
Have a great day
- 23.30 AUS westpac consumer confidence
- 07.00 UK unemployment
- 07.00 German HICP
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