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GBP dips on disappointing GDP numbers

Good morning

GBP slipped lower this morning as UK GDP numbers disappointed. GBPUSD had been trading around 1.2500 but it shot lower to 1.2450 on the announcement. GBPEUR dipped below 1.1600 for the first time in almost one month. EURUSD holding in the 1.0740 area as talk of a possible rate rise tomorrow offers some support for the single currency. The talk comes from a press article suggesting new ECB forecasts will show inflation above 3% through 2024, above the 2% target and actually took EURUSD briefly up to 1.0765. Mind you, we’d be happy with a mere 3% inflation rate!

USDJPY made its way back above 147.00 yesterday afternoon and has held above there ever since, trading up to 147.45 overnight. Concerns over China slowdown seems to be affecting the entire region.

US CPI today is expected to show an uplift this afternoon, partly due to higher energy prices. A MoM rise of 0.6% and a YoY increase to 3.6% is expected although the core reading is expected to come in lower at 4.3%. This may still not be enough to force the Fed to raise rates next week. The Adobe digital price index was released yesterday showed online prices were at a 40 month low with grocery prices making the first monthly decline in 27 months.

North Koreas Kim is meeting Putin at the Russia Vostochny Cosmodrone in the far east of Russia. Press reports suggest they are talking of helping each other with satellites and other space programmes although Putin says talks revolve around economic cooperation and those of a humanitarian nature. Of course, the two are bound by their shared hatred of the West and will no doubt talk about the supply of weapons for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Apple shares slid on release of the new iPhone 15 which is not hugely different to older models but does have some new materials, and camera and screen upgrades. A key difference is that Apple have adopted the USB-C charging point rather than their lightning charger. The aim to find a uniform charger for all technical devices across different manufacturers will be a good step going forward, making life easier for us when hunting around the house for a charging cable.

Englands footballers got back to winning ways with a decent 3-1 over Scotland. Our cricketers will take on New Zealand in the next ODI this afternoon, then the final match in this series will be on Friday.

Thoughts are with the people of Libya, which is in a state of shock after devastating floods claim the lives of perhaps 10,000 people. Numbers haven’t been confirmed but there are already thousands dead with thousands more missing. It is difficult to comprehend the scale of the damage, the UN says it is a calamity of epic proportions. This follows the recent Moroccan earthquakes which also claimed the lives of nearly three thousand people. We have had plenty of other major catastrophes in the world, and always have had, but it does feel like they are more regular.

- 10.00 EU industrial production

- 13.30 US CPI

- 19.00 US monthly budget statement

- 02.00 AUS consumer inflation expectations

- 02.30 AUS unemployment

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