• richard evans

Does 'no presents' really mean no presents?

Good morning

Risk sentiment seems to have made a turn for the better although quite what has driven this I really don’t know. The same Covid concerns are still here, OK so Johnson says no restrictions before Christmas but no one is ruling out anything after that. With WHO warning we should brace for significant increases in the number of cases it is difficult to see how we could avoid some sort of lockdown. Many of our European neighbours have already done so.

On perhaps a more positive note I am wondering though whether our boosters will be reasonably effective, plus I do recall there was talk of a Covid pill being approved that would reduce hospitalisations. Health Sec Javid has shortened self-isolation to seven days, from ten days, on a negative lateral flow test while US army scientists claim to have developed a vaccine that is effective against all Covid variants, Omicron included.

UKs q/q GDP came in at 1.1%, a little lower than the 1.3% expected, although the y/y number beat its 6.6% expectations by coming in at 6.8%. GBP has performed a little better through yesterday and overnight, with GBPUSD up at 1.3270 and EURGBP down to 0.8495 (GBPEUR 1.1770). EURUSD meanwhile is in a pretty tight 1.1265-1.1300 range. Liz Truss, who replaced Lord Frost as our ‘Brexit negotiator’ has said UK and EU must pick up the pace on talks, if not UK could trigger Article 16

TRY holds recent gains, indeed it is actually stronger that this time yesterday, USDTRY now down at 12.40 having been 18.20 or so a couple of days ago. Murat Zaman has been appointed deputy finance minister, not amazing news in itself but given how Erdogan can chop[ and change his people at short notice it would be no surprise if Zaman was the Finance Minister soon.

Putin has warned of military measures in response to what it sees as aggressive western action in the Ukraine. I am not sure we always get the full story here but I’d love to know what Putin regards as aggressive actions. I’m sure he’ll find any excuse to invade if he wants to and will happily tell the world he had little choice. I really don’t like where this is heading.

Not many windows left to open on the advent calendar, I’m presuming readers have all finished their shopping although we still seem to be getting deliveries on pretty much an hourly basis. ‘Essentials’ I am told. Not sure what comes from Amazon that is so essential. Anyway I am left once again in that position of whether I should believe my wife when she says ‘lets not get each other anything this year’. Seemed like a sensible plan and yet there are as yet unnamed presents under the tree. Perhaps I should start looking for some ‘essentials’ after all.

- 13.30 US GDP, PCE

- 14.00 SNB quarterly bulletin

- 15.00 US consumer confidence, existing home sales


Recent Posts

See All

Good morning UK inflation hits 9% as ex-BoE head King says rates at 1% are just nowhere near enough and wants a sign that BoE are really determined to get on top of the problem. I wonder whether ther

Good morning Firstly, apologies for the lack of report yesterday morning. I had a hospital appointment for my shoulder very early, somehow they were running behind by over an hour even though they ca

Good morning Both Feds Powell and Daly repeat that 50bps rises at the next two meetings is appropriate, the latter making clear 75bps is not really a consideration. US markets ended mixed but Asian ma