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  • richard evans

Dismal weather, dismal football

A rather dismal day of weather Friday was followed by a rather dismal display of football from England. It looked like watching Spurs a lot of the time, plenty of possession but lacking any real cutting edge. OK, so they didn’t lose, that’s a good thing and I think they may be the only team to not yet concede a goal in the tournament. But statistics like that are meaningless. We’ve hardly played serious opposition and have only scored one goal so far. I’ve watched the other ‘big’ teams play and they all seem to be more technically able and livelier. We need to improve.

It’s the longest day today, we can all bask in the glorious sunshine for as long as we want. Except we can’t because its overcast and more rain is forecast. May have to wait until next week for higher temperatures.

I try to keep things relatively uncontroversial here but I do feel the need to mention that NZ have selected a transgender athlete for the women’s weightlifting team for Tokyo 2020. I cannot see how this is fair, and while it is great that we are more open and accepting, there must be some sense to it. If I were a female weightlifter in that category I wouldn’t be impressed at all. I’m not sure if my views are old-fashioned but if someone does have to make what must be a traumatic and obviously life-changing decision to change genders, they must surely understand that as part of that they may miss out on certain things that they would otherwise have been able to enjoy. Incclusion has to be fair.

USD – Dollar holds onto gains and equity markets take a tumble as the markets continue to digest the FOMC comments last week. We have a host of Fed officials speaking this week, the first was Bullard who has already said that the economy and inflation are exceeding expectations and that he sees a rate rise in 2022. Bullard may be at the hawkish end and I’m sure we will hear some comments that tapering remains a very long way off. But it is coming, that seems sure, just a matter of when.

EUR – ECBs Lagarde speaks today although as always I’d be very surprised if she said anything away from the norm. EURUSD just off the post-FOMC lows, now at 1.1880 but very much at the mercy of those upcoming comments from Fed officials. Macron and Le Pen seem to be struggling in regional elections amid low voter turnouts but perhaps makes next years national elections all the more interesting.

GBP – GBPUSD did trade below 1.3800 in the early hours of the morning but has clawed its way back up to 1.3830 as I type. UK house data overnight shows yet another push higher in prices, surely this cannot continue! No other major data due for the next couple of days, PMIs Wednesday and then the BoE rate announcement Thursday. UK still expected to raise rates next summer, before the Fed, will that offer GBPUSD some support?

- 13.30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index

- 13.30 ECBs Lagarde speaks

- 14.30 Feds Bullard speaks

- 15.15 ECBs Lagarde speaks

- 20.00 Feds Williams speaks

- 22.00 NZ Westpac consumer survey

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