• richard evans

Currencies stuck in a range....for now...

Good morning

Another reasonably quiet day in the world of currencies, and the overnight session was equally lacking in excitement. GBPUSD tested that upside area again yesterday and actually looked like it may break, but fell back quickly to the recent range lows. 1.2260-1.2320 remains the main range, other than a couple of blips to both the upside and downside, currently bank in the middle at 1.2290 but if anything looking more vulnerable to a pullback to the range lows.

GBP a touch lower against EUR at 0.8625 (GBPEUR 1.1595) as UK MPs vote for further talks on NI protocol. EURUSD 1.0590, we have several ECB officials speaking today at their banking forum at Sintra, Portugal, including Lagarde who makes the opening speech. We will look for any information on the tools ECB will look at to avoid fragmentation, although the main event is likely to be tomorrow when Feds Powell and BoEs Bailey join Lagarde for a policy panel.

USDJPY has ticked a little higher to trade back up to the 135.75 area, taking EURJPY to 143.70 with the key 144.20 almost in sight, while GBPJPY moved up to 166.80 but watch 167.30, I think it could struggle to break above there.

Gold is back to the lower end of the recent range at $1825, a series of lower highs over the past couple of weeks has perhaps deterred longs from building positions. Key areas for me now are $1820 and $1840. Surely gold cannot hang around in this range for much longer.

Moodys has said that the Russian missed coupon payment does constitute a default and warns that further defaults are likely. Russian meanwhile have made it clear that an NATO encroachment on Crimea could lead to WWIII, this comes as NATO place 300,000 troops on a state of high readiness. The UKs head of army has said we must be prepared to fight the threat posed by Russia. G7 and others have criticised the Russian attack on a Ukrainian shopping centre yesterday, some calling it a war crime. NATO’s summit begins today in Madrid, watch for any word on Finland or Sweden joining.

Congratulations to England on winning the third and final test match against New Zealand, completing a 3-0 win in the series with both sides playing some exceptional cricket. England now take on India in the fifth test of the series that began last year and was cut short by positive Covid tests in the Indian camp. India lead the series 2-1 but England do look a different side to that from last year.

Finally, I read with interest that China have developed robotic fish that can swim around collecting minute plastic particles that could otherwise be digested by animals that live in the sea. A fantastic idea although surely this means larger sea animals will then just go and eat the robotic fish. Not so much curing a problem as creating a problem perhaps.

Finally, June positions in our currency purchase programs expire today. For those not in a program I’ll send the results around later in the week or early next week.

- 09.00 ECBs Lagarde speaks

- 09.30 ECBs Lane speaks

- 10.30 ECBs Elderson speaks

- 12.00 BoEs Cunliffe speaks

- 12.00 ECBs Panetta speaks

- 13.30 US goods trade balance, wholesale inventories

- 15.00 US consumer confidence

- 00.01 UK BRC shop prices

- 00.50 Japan retail trade

- 02.30 AUS retail sales

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