• richard evans

Can GBP hold gains going into the weekend?

Good morning


Well it looks a like a lovely day to lead us into the weekend. Sunshine, with temperatures of 20 degrees are likely and we play our last league match of the season this evening, where I’m sure we’ll have a few celebratory drinks after.


It’s not only the weather that has a lovely feel today. US markets closed firmer yesterday and most Asian markets followed suit, while US dollar continues to show signs of weakness mostly attributed to generally better risk sentiment, although it is difficult to pinpoint any one piece of news for the dollar weakness overnight.


I often say that when GBP goes up the world feels like a better place. GBPUSD traded as high as 1.2665 overnight, currently 1.2625, still nearly 500 points higher than the lows a fortnight ago. This being mostly a dollar move, GBP is relatively unchanged against EUR at 0.8505 (GBPEUR 1.1760). Boris Johnson comes under a bit more pressure from his own party but still looks set to hold his job.


I’ve not mentioned Ukraine and Russia much recently, but it would appear that Russia are getting the upper hand in the Eastern regions at the moment. There had been some optimism that their military had not been coping well but it would now seem that they are getting their act together. Meanwhile Putin has offered help on the global food crisis, but only if sanctions are lifted. Italys Draghi is reported to be having talks with Putin over unblocking of some Black Sea ports for food exports.


The US have rattled China again, Blinken saying China still poses the biggest threat to international order despite Russias invasion of Ukraine, and there is talk US are planning economic talks with Taiwan, something that would certainly anger China. Blinken calmed the mood slightly by saying US do not want a ‘cold war’ with China and indeed look for more communication with Beijing,


I am out of the office for the start of next week. I’m actually on a golf weekend although after my shoulder operation I’m not sure I will be playing much. Still, a wander around some lovely Hampshire countryside, some good food and drinks with friends, doesn’t need any excuse really.


I have included a calendar for the early part of next week. Quite a lot going on and although in the UK we have a two day bank holiday on the Thursday and Friday, I see we will also be treated to some decent US data including nonfarm payrolls on the Friday. We’ll be watching it so you can go and enjoy your jubilee street parties!


- 12.35 ECBs Lane speaks

- 13.30 US PCE,, personal income/spending

- 15.00 US Michigan sentiment survey

- 20.30 CFTC position data


Monday

- 10.00 EU confidence data

- 13.00 German CPI, HICP

- 23.45 NZ building perrmits


Tuesday

- 00.30 Japan unemployment, industrial production, retail trade

- 02.00 China manufacturing, non-manufacturing PMIs

- 02.30 AUS building permits

- 10.00 EU HICP

- 13.30 CAD GDP

- 14.45 US Chicago PMI

- 15.00 US consumer confidence


Wednesday

- 00.01 UK BRC shop prices

- 02.30 AUS GDP

- 02.45 China Caixin manufacturing PMI

- 07.00 German retail sales

- 09.00 EU S&P manufacturing PMI

- 09.30 UK S&P manufacturing PMI

- 10.00 EU unemployment rate

- 14.30 CAD S&P manufacturing PMIs

- 14.45 US S&P manufacturing PMIs

- 15.00 US manufacturing ISM

- 15.00 BoC rate announcement

- 19.00 Feds Beige book


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