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  • richard evans

Calm before the possible storm

Good morning

Welcome back to another week in the world of currencies. Can;’t say I have a huge amount to report as yet, GBPUSD closed last week on the lows around 1.2380, indeed this is where we find GBPUSD now, any attempt at regaining 1.2400 has proved to be short-lived. EURUSD is also pretty close to where it closed Friday, 1.0660 which puts GBPEUR 1.1620.

Not a huge calendar today, a couple of ECB officials will be speaking, but we do have a pretty busy week ahead. Tuesday sees CAD CPI, Wednesday we have UK’s inflation numbers followed by the Feds rate announcement, while we find out on Thursday if the UKs BoE really will increase rates as expected by 25bps to 5.5%. If that isn’t enough, Friday brings UK retail sales and EU, UK and US PMIs. SNB, BoJ, Riksbank and Norges Bank and Turkeys CBRT are also making rate announcements this week. More on all that as we work our way through the week.

USDCNY fixed some 1,000 points below reasonable levels at 7.1736, talk that China property developers are losing billions of US dollars on their dollar borrowings due to the weak yen. China golden week begins in a couple of weeks which will bri9ng with it the usual mass exodus of workers from manufacturing cities to their homes. Almost 23million train tickets were sold on Friday alone. Meanwhile China sent over 100 military planes towards Taiwan in a 24 hour period, all turning back before reaching Taiwanese airspace. This follows a host of Chinese military ships sent into waters near Taiwan after US and Canadian vessels sailed through the Taiwan Straits. China flexing their muscles but I remain concerned that at some point these will not be drills.

For now, some attention being focussed on oil prices with Brent up at $94.50 and WTI at $91.50, levels not seen since last November but perhaps more worryingly over 15% up from the August lows. A reported shortage of diesel over the weekend hasn’t helped.

Englands cricket team took the ODI series by beating New Zealand soundly Friday, while their rugby counterparts managed to win a rather scrappy match against Japan yesterday. Englands next match is against Chile on Saturday, while Scottish and Welsh fans will have to wait until Sunday for their next matches against Tonga and Australia respectively. The latter could be a cracker.

Spurs remain second in the Premier League after somehow beating Sheffield Utd despite being a goal down with over 95 minutes played. Two exceptionally late goals gave Spurs the win. Big guns Man Utd and Chelsea are struggling down in 13th and 14th position in the league. A long way to go yet mind you.

Enjoy what may well be a quiet day, things are likely to get more lively later in the week.

- 10.00 ECBs de Guindos speaks

- 11.00 Buba monthly report

- 16.00 ECBs Panetta speaks

- 22.00 NZ Westpac consumer survey

- 02.30 RBA minutes

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