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  • richard evans

Busy week ahead before the Easter holidays

Good morning

GBP slipped after UK numbers this morning, GBPUSD is back up to pre-release levels around 1.3020 but is struggling a little against the Euro, with EURGBP at 0.8375 (GBPEUR 1.1940). EURUSD itself is just around 1.0900, up from the mornings lows around 1.0875. French elections see far-right Marine Le Pen go up against Macron, Macron coming out on top after the first round but feeling is it could be a close affair come the 24th April.

UK Chancellor Sunak could face a struggle to survive after his wifes non-dom status was revealed. Her status had been disclosed to the cabinet office back in 2018, I guess that makes it all OK. Sunak has asked for a review into his affairs and I am sure they will find no wrong-doing to the letter of the law, and I believe Sunaks wife will now pay UK tax even if she doesn’t have to, but just as with the government lockdown parties it is incredible how the powers that be think they can pretty much do what they want. This is not party-specific, let’s face it whoever has power will eventually find a way to use and abuse it at some point. Just a bit galling to see tax rises and to have someone tell you they feel your pain, when in fact they really don’t.

Ukraine crisis is ongoing, I see the Austrian chancellor is expected to meet Putin in Moscow today, I’m not sure what is likely to come from that mind you. Russian are likely to be unhappy with the news that Finland and Sweden are looking to join NATO this year. Talk NATO will move forces East to protect members such as Latvia and Estonia, that won’t sit well with Russia either. I wonder if they will understand this is as a result of their invasion of Ukraine, rather than a unilateral show of aggression.

Must say a few words about football. Firstly as a Spurs fan I have to say recent results could not have gone better, not only have Spurs won a couple of matches but closest rivals Man Utd and Arsenal lost which makes for an interesting battle for fourth place. One team not battling for fourth place are my U15s, who earned six points on Sunday by winning both matches of their double header, the first a rather one-sided 8-1 victory, the second was close at 5-3 although I had moved my entire team around, including a goalkeeper change, to try to even things up. Now up to third place, just two points behind the leaders but with seven games in hand.

I’ll leave it there for now, actually looking forward to a family lunch to celebrate my eldest sons 18th birthday, if we can get him out of bed that is! The day looks quiet in terms of economic data but livens up through the week, with UK unemployment, German and US inflation tomorrow, NZ and BoC rate announcements, plus UK inflation Wednesday, ECB rate announcement and US retail sales Thursday. Then we can enjoy a long Easter weekend.

- 14.30 Feds Bowman speaks

- 17.00 Feds Williams speaks

- 00.01 UK BRC retail sales

- 07.00 UK unemployment

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