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  • richard evans

Barnier turning against the EU ?

Good morning

We start the week with the US dollar slightly stronger as some Asian equities show signs of a risk-off sentiment, led by reports China will be breaking up payment firm Alipay as part of its crackdown on firms, plus reports Evergrande investors could see only 25% of their investments returned.

The US dollar may have been given a bit of help we well from comments from Feds Harker who says tapering should begin soon as inflation could last a long time. US inflation is due out tomorrow, with retail sales later in the week.

We have a very light economic calendar today, but we make up for it over the coming days, starting with UK unemployment early tomorrow morning, and inflation and retail sales following later in the week. With the furlough scheme coming to an end soon, the unemployment numbers will be watched closely to see how many of those still at home will eventually return to work. GBPUSD currently 1.3810, EURGBP 0.8535 (GBPEUR 1.1715).

Barnier, the EUs Brexit negotiator who criticised UK so much for going against the EUs wishes has surprised by saying he would offer the French public a referendum on immigration, with a view to taking control of French immigration policy away from the EU. Not quite sure how that would work, but the EU are being challenged by the likes of Poland and Hungary, they could certainly do without more members looking for independent treatment. This could of course be just a way of getting attention given the Republicans must soon choose who will stand in their presidential elections, but for someone like the very pro-EU sounding Barnier, it Is quite a statement. EURUSD down at 1.1785, lowest level since late August.

If anyone really knew what they are and how well they work, it looks as though UK vaccine passports are likely to be scrapped as UK PM Johnson outlines Covid plans for autumn and winter to parliament tomorrow. Further lockdowns do, for now, seem to be out of the equation but as we know this is an ever-changing playing field and one that will likely bring more surprises in the coming months.

On the subject of playing fields, I am very pleased to report that my U15s won their first match of the season 2-0 yesterday. It was a close match but overall we were deserved winners and actually could have scored a couple more given the number of chances we created. All in all a good day at the office and a great way to begin the new season. We won’t talk about Spurs.

- 19.00 US monthly budget statement

- 01.00 RBAs Ellis speaks

- 02.30 AUS house prices, NAB business confidence

- 03.45 RBAs Lowe speaks

- 05.30 Japan industrial production

- 07.00 UK unemployment

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