Arsenal take a huge step closer to the Premier League title

Good morning

For the first time in goodness knows how long I have woken up to rain hammering on the windows.  The forecast suggests it could last all day, but I see looking ahead to the bank holiday weekend temperatures here are likely to hit the high 20°c region.  Something to look forward to.  The London tube strikes due to take place have been cancelled at the last minute, perhaps they looked at the forecast and decided next week would be a better time to not be at work!

Various bits of news to get through today.  We’ll start with UK politics where Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting are building their case to replace Starmer.  As I see it, the stark difference for now is Streeting’s insistence he’d take the UK back into the EU, while Burnham is more reluctant to do so.  On the subject of politics, I was astounded to read that five green party candidates who had been voted in at the recent local elections have already quit their post.  Three have turned out to be ineligible for the role, one has been suspended for hateful media posts and one has left due to ill health.  How can people be put forward for an election that they are no eligible for?  Madness.  It’ll cost us, the taxpayer, money.

Trump has said he called off a strike on Iran that was scheduled for today after a request from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE to hold off.  Negotiations are ongoing, Trump is now saying that they’ll be happy with a deal that would mean Iran will not have nuclear weapons. Whether that sits right with Iran remains to be seen. 

RBA minutes of the most recent meeting were overnight.  RBA had raised rate for the third time in a row but they are signalling a pause as they assess the impact of the Middle East war.  Further rises are certainly not off the table completely, the risks are for higher inflation that may need to be dealt with, but for now we’re likely to see a pause in rate moves.  GBPAUD is 1.8775 having seen a low last week around 1.8540

UK employment numbers this morning saw the unemployment rate tick up to 5%, overshadowing the decent but rather unreliable employment change number that came in at +148k from +25k last time.  GBPUSD has slipped back a little since the data although it could be said this was a continuation of the move after GBPUSD’s rally in late London trading to 1.3445.  Currently at 1.3395 against the US dollar, GBP has made gains against EUR, breaking above the 1.1500 area yesterday afternoon and holding ever since.

The WHO yesterday expressed concern over the latest Ebola outbreak, with almost 400 cases and over 100 deaths reported, but they fear these numbers could well understate the true size of the outbreak.  This is not a pandemic but they have said it is a health emergency of international concern.  Meanwhile the cruise ship hit by the Hantavirus outbreak has docked in Rotterdam after having unloaded passengers in the Canary Islands last week.  The remaining crew will now isolate, with WHO recommending 42 days of isolation.  The 10 or so days of Covid isolation seems like childs play in compassion.

Arsenal took a massive step forward in their quest for the premier league title with a 1-0 over Burnley yesterday evening.  As it feels with every match, there was VAR controversy, we have become quite used to that.  This evening Bournemouth could hand Arsenal the title if they beat Man City this evening.  City, who won the FA cup last weekend, are preparing for life without their manager Guardiola next season even though he has another year on his contract.  Meanwhile, Spurs could avoid relegation if they can manage at least a draw against Chelsea this evening.  Chelsea haven’t been great recently but they have shown improvement and unfortunately I can see the relegation battle going down to the final match of the season.

Canadian inflation numbers out this afternoon, and UK’s own inflation data will be released early tomorrow morning.  We’ll still be watching for any more news on iran, at some point Trump will either have to stand by his threats to recommence hostilities or go home, equity markets seem to fall in the latter camp although oil prices remain at the upper end of recent ranges.

Have a great day…

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-  13.00 ECBs Lane speaks

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-  13.30 CAD CPI

-  15.00 US pending home sales

-  00.00 Feds Paulson speaks

-  02.15 PBoC rate announcement

-  07.00 UK CPI, PPI, RPI