All quiet on the currency front

Good morning

All quiet on the currency front, I’m desperately hunting for anything remotely interesting to write but to be honest it’s a pretty futile exercise.  A softer US PPI number yesterday did little to the markets other than pour a smidge more doubt as to the likelihood of a Fed rate rise next month.  Still, the US managed to sell 10 year debt at 4.68% which is the highest level since 2007, while Bloomberg reports the US sold 30 year bonds yesterday at 5.216%, the highest for 25 years. 

GBPUSD and EURUSD are 1.3500 and 1.1545, GBPEUR 1.1700.  UDSJPY is 159.25, markets are aware that intervention could come at any time but still seem happy to keep testing lows for Yen.  Some talk of 160 and 162 being potential intervention triggers.  GBPJPY is a few pips above 215, GBPAUD and GBPNZD are 1.9100 and 2.3000 which leaves AUDNZD at 1.2040.

In Iran, it seems that Trump is turning to economic pressure rather than military action in an attempt to force Iran to encourage some sort of deal but it seems unlikely to me that anything the US do will make Iran bow down to demands.  This could go on a very long time.

Farage has been re-elected in the Clacton by-election with just over 22,000 votes, beating Count Binface who managed to come in second with a whopping 9,500 votes.  Seriously?  I get the idea that anyone can stand in these elections but who on earth voted for a guy with a shiny bin on his head.  

Looking ahead to the weekend, the 30+ degree temperatures look like they will give way to more comfortable levels in the mid-20’s.  In sport, the Championship beings this evening, while we have to wait another week for the Premier League to begin.  Sunday brings the Community Shield between Man City and Arsenal, not the most important match ever but both teams will be keen to get one over their opponents.   

Next week, brings UK employment, CPI, PPI, RPI and retail sales, plus EU, UK and US PMIs.  We’ll also have Canada CPI and Aussie employment, while FOMC minutes will come more into focus given the slight drop in Fed rate rise expectations this week.

US retail sales is the highlight on today’s calendar, but if the inflation numbers didn’t move markets I’d be surprised if we see a major impact from today’s data.  Perhaps there will be time to sit out in the sunshine this afternoon!

Have a great, and a great weekend as and when it comes…

-  10.00 EU GDP, employment

-  13.30 US retail sales

-  15.00 US Michigan sentiment survey