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  • richard evans

All eyes on Jackson Hole. And Reading.

Good morning

Jackson Hole symposium begins today and the dollar has been sold off a little ahead of the gathering, with EURUSD now just above parity and GBPUDS back up to mid-1.18s. Smells a little like position squaring to me. We have several Fed officials speaking today, they are not part of the Jackson Hole event but of course their comments will be closely watched for any clues as to the direction Powell might take tomorrow. WSJ article suggests half of US inflation is driven by stronger demand rather than simple high prices. Attention also on US GDP data out this afternoon although no major revisions expected.

I have seen a couple of rather bearish articles on both EUR and GBP, one major US bank is particularly bearish GBP, looking at four month 1.0775 puts, painting a rather gloomy outlook. I’d been thinking of looking at some longer dated downside just in case but hadn’t thought of numbers quite that low. I have to say though that part of their thinking revolved around technical levels dating back to 2015 or so and seemed a little tenuous. Still, could be worth getting something on just in case.

We packed my eldest two off to the Reading festival yesterday, they trotted off in their summer clothes and with their lightweight tents. I awoke early this morning to the sound of rain hammering down harder than I can ever remember. Perfect timing. Hope they have managed to stay dry, if not it should let up by this afternoon and it looks like good weather after that so they’ll be able to dry out eventually.

I see British Gas have announced plans to donate some of its profits to help customers cope with soaring energy bills. A great headline but looking closer, the initial donation of £12m is not a patch on the £1.3bn profit Centrica made in the six months to June. It’s a start I guess, but doubt it will make much of a dent.

Finally, good luck to anyone with kids getting their GCSE results today. This is the first bunch for three years to have actually sat exams so I wouldn’t be surprised to see overall levels drop a little, however I presume the bell curve distribution adjusts for that so no doubt there will be plenty of 8’s and 9’s still floating around.

- 09.00 German IFO

- 12.30 ECB minutes

- 12.30 Feds George speaks

- 13.15 Feds Bullard speaks

- 13.30 US GDP, core PCE, initial jobless claims

- 14.00 Feds Harker speaks

- 14.30 Feds Bostic speaks

- 15.00 Jackson Hole starts

- 16.30 Feds Mester speaks

- 00.30 Japan Tokyo CPI

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