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  • richard evans

All doom and gloom heading into Q4

Good morning

Well, I say good morning, but looking out of the window I’m not convinced it is. As we enter Q4 2021, I appear to be heading off for a golf weekend in the middle of something like a tropical storm. I never trust the forecasts too much but it doesn’t take a genius to work out that heavy rain and strong winds are the order of the day and no one wants to ever play golf in that. Do I waste precious petrol driving to Southampton? Of course I do. Meeting up with some friends, some of whom I have not seen for two years or so, catching up, reminiscing and regurgitating old stories from our footballing days and a few drinks. What could be better?

The rather gloomy weather seems to be matched by the markets, global equities looking rather weak despite Biden signing off a bill to avoid a government shutdown. S&P500 had itsa worst month since March 2020. In the UK it is difficult to find much to be upbeat about right now, energy prices going up, fuel shortages, worries about post-furlough redundancies. Add to that, France are upset with UK over fishing permits and have talked about blocking Channel tunnel, as well as using energy they supply us as a negotiating tool.

Currency markets are reasonably steady, GBP has had a bit of shift lower tagain this morning with GBPUSD at 1.3445 and EURGBP at 0.8620 (1.1600). EURUSD has tested 1.1560 a few times but its holding for now, the pair currently 1.1585.

Otherwise little else to report so I’ll leave it there and go and pack some more golf balls on the off chance we actually get to play. No football for the U15s this weekend. We are likely to lose our spot at the top of the table if other results go the way I expect, but we will have games in hand. Ah, guess I should mention Spurs managed a fine victory in European football against the might of NS Mura, a Slovenian team whose stadium seats just over 3,500. It wasn’t that long ago that we were in the Champions League final…..

- 09.00 EU markit manufacturing PMI

- 09.30 UK markit manufacturing PMI

- 13.30 US personal income, spending, PCE

- 14.30 CAD markit manufacturing PMI

- 14.45 US markit manufacturing PMI

- 15.00 US manufacturing ISM, Michigan sentiment survey

- 16.30 ECBs Schnabel speaks

- 20.30 CFTC position data

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