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  • richard evans

All about US data for now

Good morning


With little in the way of economic data to get in the way yesterday, the US dollar continued to trade on a softer footing, with GBPUSD trading to 1.2705.  EURUSD could only manage a small rally to 1.0860, meaning GBPEUR was a little higher, but stopping just short of 1.1700.  USDJPY was stuck in the mid-150s, ignoring a slightly stronger than expected Tokyo CPI reading overnight.  The bigger moves came in gold and bitcoin, both of which gained against USD reaching to around $2120 and $67,500 respectively.  As I type GBPUSD is 1.2675, EURUSD 1.0545, GBPEUR 1.1685.


Gold is actually edging towards the highs seen last in early December 2023, when it traded from the open on Sunday night to a high in the $2150 region, although given the markets were illiquid at that time the actual high was up for some debate with some seeing it only at $2135.  Back then the move was largely put down to safe-haven buying on reports of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.  Here we are some three months later and not a lot has changed, we certainly seem no closer to any resolution in the Israel/Gaza conflict.


It could be a busy week from here on for USD.  ISM numbers are out later today, anything weaker than expected could send USD lower still.  US employment data comes thick and fast this week with both ADP and JOLTS Wednesday, challenger job cuts Thursday and then the highlight of the week, the US nonfarms on Friday.  Add in a bit of Powell who speaks Wednesday and Thursday and we have some reasonable potential for volatility.  I still see possibility of Powell erring on the less dovish side but as we have seen, weak US data can and most likely will send USD lower anyway.


Amid all of that we have the ECB rate meeting on Thursday, no changes expected there but the tone of the statement should be key for determining the appetite ECB has for rate cuts.  Any sign that they are nearing the time to pull the trigger could see GBPEUR back up towards the mid-1.17s and beyond.


Free scoring Arsenal had another dominant Premier League performance last night, beating Sheffield Utd 6-0 to keep them in contention for the title and if it comes down to goal difference their recent run of form has done them no harm at all.  Attention turns to the next leg of the last 16 of champions league matches this week. 


‘Celebrity Big Brother’ returned to our TV screens last night, as always there is some questions over whether some of the contestants really are celebrities, I’ve certainly only heard of about half of them but then again I’m not sure I’m the demographic they are really trying to appeal to.  I occasionally find the programme interesting, more for the psychological experiment than anything.  I don’t want to see huge shouting matches but it always better viewing if they don’t all get on brilliantly.  In the betting, someone I don’t know is a slight favourite over someone else I don’t know.  Not sure I’m going to get into this.



-  09.00 EU composite PMI

-  10.00 EU PPI

-  14.45 US S&P composite PMI

-  15.00 US services ISM, factory orders

-  17.00 Feds Barr speaks

-  00.30 AUS GDP



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