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  • richard evans

A hotel bar that closes at 10.45pm, that's bad news, isn't it?

Good morning

I’m back having survived my golf weekend. All in all it was pretty good and we were lucky with the weather, Saturday afternoon was a wash out but the sun was out on Friday and Sunday, so much that you would not have really thought it was October. We experienced some Interesting service levels at the hotel. We have been there before, it used to be a Marriott but is now in the hands of Britannia. Difficult to blame the staff, they tried hard but were not always competent and found it difficult at times to keep up with demand, particularly when Saturday afternoon got busier than usual with all the golfers who couldn’t face playing in the heavy rain. I’m not sure if its right to entirely blame Brexit for the lack of decent, well trained and attentive staff but I have heard similar stories of poor service from many people who have stayed at hotels in the UK this year. The most surprising thing was when they closed the bar at 10.45pm. A golf hotel, closing the bar early! I’m not sure what is behind their policy but they missed a huge amount of income. We weren’t happy at the time but probably secretly a little thankful the following morning! Must be getting old….

Former ECB president Trichet says EU area inflation surge is transitory, however he suggests US inflation is different. He may be right but it does sound a little like he’s trying to talk EURUS lower. Surely that would never happen! The pair is now 1.1600 having traded down to 1.1560 last week. US policymakers still insist their inflation will slip back to target but the timeline for this is getting less clear. A strong reading from the US nonfarm payroll numbers this Friday is only likely to encourage markets to look for US rate rises although changes in 2022 still seem an outside bet. GBP has made a bit of a recovery from last weeks lows of 1.3410, now trading 1.3560, while EURGBP is back to 0.8560 (GBPEUR 1.1680) from 0.8655 (1.1555) last week.

It is a China holiday this week but that does not stop them making a lot of headlines. Firstly Evergrande shares have been suspended pending a major announcement. There is some suggestion that a Hong Kong firm, Hopson, could acquire part of the beleaguered group. Meanwhile China have been sending jets into Taiwanese airspace, 38 on Friday and 39 on Saturday, leading the US to say they are concerned with Chinas recent rise in military activity. Once again, US voices are unlikely to be heard by Beijing.

Still on China, it is expected that the US will announce China have not stuck to their side of the Phase 1 trade agreement although in better trade news it is reported that the cost of shipping containers from China has fallen after reaching record highs last month.

NZ have widened their lockdown after more Covid cases have been confirmed. NZD is a little lower, trading at 0.6930 against USD while AUDNZD tested up to 1.0490 before slipping back to 1.0465.

Its potentially an interesting couple of days for Australia and New Zealand, with RBA and RBNZ making rate announcements, starting with RBA in the early hours of tomorrow morning. No policy changes expected from RBA but a 25bps rise from RBNZ is widely expected and pretty much priced in.

A huge data leak appears to show the hidden wealth of many of the worlds rich and powerful, including leaders of several countries. I’ve not really had much of a chance to look at them but I presume they will be filled with offshore companies and tax avoidance mechanisms, no doubt some surprises in there but do we really believe any leader of a country does not amass some decent levels of wealth

- 08.30 ECBs de Guindos speaks

- 13.30 CAD building permits

- 15.00 US factory orders

- 15.00 Feds Bullard speaks

- 22.00 NZ NZIER business confidence

- 23.00 AUS commonwealth bank PMIs

- 00.30 Japan Tokyo CPI

- 01.30 AUS trade balance

- 04.30 RBA rate announcement

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