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  • richard evans

A football team with 15 substitutes?

Good morning

UK retail sales this morning showed a fall of 0.5% in May, a little less than expected although the previous month reading was revised lower and the year on year number was lower than expected at -4.7%. In answer to one of the questions I raised a while back, it would seem that actual pounds spent in that time went up, suggesting consumers are buying less goods but for more money. Overnight the consumer confidence number hit an all-time low, which is quite something when you think we have had Brexit and a pandemic in recent years, while the Conservatives are in a state of disarray this morning having lost two by-elections, Oliver Dowden the party chairman has resigned.

Despite all of this GBP seems to be holding up reasonably well, GBPUSD at 1.2270 as I type, one hundred points or so off yesterdays lows. We’ve failed a few times trying to break higher this week, a series of lower highs suggests 1.2285-1.2300 is becoming a key area. GBP a bit higher against the Euro, with EURGBP at 0.8580 (GBPEUR 1.1655). We have tested this area several times this week, each time it has failed to break lower. Well worth watching.

EURUSD is doing what it does best, trade within a tight range overnight and I would not be at all surprised if we held 30 pips either side of current levels (1.0525) for a while now. German IFO this morning is always watched closely but I don’t think it ever has a significant impact on the Euro. Famous last words? ECbs Kazimir has said he sees rates at 1.5-2.0% in a years time, pointing out that some EU nations might face short recession.

We do have a couple of other ECB officials speaking today and we look for any rate clues from them. EU have granted Ukraine candidate status bringing it closer to EU membership. Western nations continue to offer support to Ukraine in the form of military hardware, whether this is enough to hold back a Russian army that seems to be steadily taking ground is another matter.

Some attention still on Yen. USDJPY slipped back to 134.35 this morning after trying to test up to 135.20 overnight. Too early to say whether the weak yen trend has turned or whether we are just seeing some end of week profit taking. EURJPY has been dragged down to 141.65, GBPJPY to the short term support area around 165.00.

So we are getting near to the weekend. The weather looks as though it will be decent, although a little cooler than the previous few days. I’m hoping this means hayfever might not be quite as bad so perhaps I’ll be able to spend some time doing chores in the garden. If I do have to stay indoors at least it looks like we could have another great test against New Zealand. Now I come to think of it, that hayfever is already pretty bad!

I’ve also got to sort out a problem with my football team. Following or success last season I have had numerous new players asking to join, leading me to consider making two teams for next season. Plenty of logistical issues to resolve of course but it’s a possibility. Mind you, I have just been reading that for the world up in Qatar later this year, teams will be allowed a squad of 26, with all 15 non-players allowed to be named as a substitute. I bet those 15 don’t have their parents sending Southgate text messages asking why their son wasn’t playing……

- 09.00 German IFO

- 12.30 ECBs de Guindos speaks

- 12.30 RBAs Lowe speaks

- 13.30 BoEs Pill speaks

- 14.45 BoEs Haskell speaks

- 15.00 US Michigan sentiment survey, new home sales

- 20.30 CFTC position data

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